经济结构调整在中国长期经济稳定中的作用：基于方差分解的估计
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| Title | The Role of Economic Structural Adjustment in Long Term Economic Stabilization in China
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| 作者 | 方红生 金祥荣 |
| Author | Fang Jinsheng and Jin Xiangrong |
| 作者单位 | 浙江大学经济学院 |
| Organization | Zhejiang University College of Economics |
| 作者Email | fudancenter7@yahoo.com.cn；jinxiangrong@sina.com |
| 中文关键词 | 方差分解 结构效应 波动效应 预测 发展战略 |
| Key Words | Variance Decomposition; Structural Effect; Volatility Effect; Forcasting; Development Strategy |
| 内容提要 | 基于Eggers和Ioannides的分解方法，本文估计了1990年代中期以后中国长期经济稳定的源泉并对结构优化对中国未来长期经济稳定的可能影响进行了预测，结果发现，1）中国产业结构调整对于中国长期经济稳定的贡献率为负的46.38%；2）如果中国三大产业自身没有向着特别稳定的方向转变，那么就不可能有90年代中后期的长期经济稳定；3）中国支出结构调整的贡献率为43.95%，本文指出这并不意味着中国改革开放以来的支出结构向着非常有利于中国长期经济稳定的方向调整；4）如果中国产业结构向第三产业转变的程度越大，那么结构优化的贡献将会越大；5）如果将支出结构份额调整到改革开放早期的平均水平，那么结构优化的贡献高达38.25% 。此外，本文认为中国政府只有采取遵循比较优势的发展战略才能实现一个合理的经济结构。 |
| Abstract | Based on Eggers and Ioannides(2006)’s decomposition method, it estimates sources of long term economic stabilization after the mid-1990s and forecasts possible influences of structural optimization for long term economic stabilization in future in China. We find, 1) the contribution rate of industry structure adjustment for Chinese long term economic stabilization is -46.38 percent;2) If three industries in China have not changed towards an especially stable orientation, it is impossible to have long term economic stability after the mid-1990s;3) the contribution rate of expenditure structure adjustment is 43.95 percent, but it didn’t mean that expenditure structure adjustment since reform and opening up is very beneficial to Chinese long term economic stability;4) If industrial structure will transit more towards triangle industry, more contribution structural optimization will bring;5) If expenditure structure’s share will be adjusted to average level at the early reform and opening up, the contribution rate of structural optimization will be up to 38.25 percent. Besides, it thinks that only through adopting CAF strategy, Chinese government realizes a reasonable economic structure. |
| 文章编号 | WP45 |
| 登载时间 | 2011-01-20 |
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