经济波动是否会影响产业结构升级？
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| Title | Does Volatility Matter for Industrial Structure Upgrading?
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| 作者 | 王永进 |
| Author | Wang Yongjin |
| 作者单位 | 厦门大学经济学院国际经济与贸易系 |
| Organization | School of Economics, Xiamen University |
| 作者Email | wyjin17@163.com |
| 中文关键词 | 经济波动 产业结构升级 不完全契约 |
| Key Words | Economic Volatility; Industrial Structure; Incomplete Contract |
| 内容提要 | 本文基于不完全契约和偏向性技术进步理论构建理论框架，阐述了经济波动影响产业结构的微观作用机制。在此基础上，基于制造业的跨国产出和贸易数据检验了经济波动对产业结构的影响。研究表明：（1）经济波动对产业结构升级具有显著的负面影响，而且在控制契约制度、金融发展、人力资本等诸多因素后，该结论仍然成立；（2）不论是从影响系数的大小还是统计显著性来看，经济波动对产业结构的作用均超过了金融发展和人力资本等传统比较优势因素，而且这一结论不受变量控制和样本选择的影响；（3）对于法律制度不太完善的发展中国家而言，经济的剧烈波动尤其不利于产业结构升级。为此，保持宏观经济的平稳运行对发展中国家的产业升级具有格外重要的意义。 |
| Abstract | This paper builds up a model to investigate the mechanism through which volatility affect industrial structure, based on the theory of incomplete contract and biased technology change. In addition, we empirically test the effect of economic volatility on industrial structure using cross-country production and trade data of the manufacturing industry. The results show that: first, volatility has a significant negative effect on industrial structure upgrading, which robustly holds after controlling for variables including contract enforcement, financial development and human capital endowment. Second, both the absolute value and statistical significance of volatility are larger than that of financial development and traditional factor endowment such as human capital; third, subsample regression implies that, the effect of volatility on industrial structure is relatively larger for developing countries with less developed legal system. Thus maintaining macro-economy stability is especially important for developing countries. |
| 文章编号 | WP99 |
| 登载时间 | 2011-08-09 |
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