治理通货膨胀的有效货币政策操作方式 阅读全文
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Title | Effective Implemental Procedure of Monetary Policy to Fight Inflation
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作者 | 王曦 邹文理 叶茂 |
Author | Wang Xi,Zou Wenli and Ye Mao |
作者单位 | 中山大学岭南学院 |
Organization | LINGNAN(UNIVERSITY)COLLEGE, SUN YAT-SEN UNIVERSITY |
作者Email | lnswx@mail.sysu.edu.cn;chbuzwl@163.com;yepmau@163.com |
中文关键词 | 通货膨胀 货币政策 操作方式 有效性 |
Key Words | Inflation; Monetary Policy; Operating Procedure; Effectiveness |
内容提要 | 本文首先从中国的金融体制安排出发,归纳总结了我国特殊的货币政策工具和政策目标体系。然后采取逆货币政策操作方向的思路,通过基于向量自回归模型的格兰杰因果检验、预测误差方差分解以及脉冲响应分析,对各种政策工具、操作和中介目标的作用效果进行量化比较,识别出治理通货膨胀的有效政策工具和各级目标,以及相应的政策操作方式。研究发现:M1是影响通货膨胀最有效的中介目标;而金融机构信贷计划又是影响M1的最有效操作目标;市场利率对通货膨胀和M1存在一定影响。因此,治理通货膨胀的有效货币政策操作方式是:中央银行以信贷政策为主、其他政策工具为辅的政策组合,来控制M1,以最终治理通货膨胀。本文还从信贷规模控制制度下的货币创造机制等方面,对以上结论进行了经济学解释。 |
Abstract | The paper first summarizes China’s special monetary policy instrument and target system in accordance with the financial regime of China. Then following the train of thought of retrograde analysis on monetary policy implementation, and applying Granger causality test, forecast error variance decomposition and impulse response analysis based on VAR model, we compare the effects of various monetary policy instruments, operational and intermediate targets to identify the best monetary policies and the operating procedure to fight inflation. Our analysis concludes that: M1 is the best intermediate target to curb inflation, credit plan is the most effective operational target in affecting M1, and market interest rates has some influence to both inflation and M1. Thus, the effective implemental procedure of monetary policy to fight inflation is: the Central Bank uses credit policy together with other policy instruments as supplement, to control M1, and then to finally attain the goal of fighting inflation. The paper also provides economic explanations to the above conclusions mainly based on the credit-scale-control system. |
文章编号 | WP105 |
登载时间 | 2011-08-18 |
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