中国低碳经济转型进程评估与预测：地区视角
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| Title | Evaluation of Low Carbon Transformation Process in China: Provincial Perspective
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| 作者 | 陈诗一 |
| Author | Chen Shiyi |
| 作者单位 | 复旦大学中国社会主义市场经济研究中心 |
| Organization | China Center for Economic Studies, Fudan University |
| 作者Email | shiyichen@fudan.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 低碳经济转型 动态评估指数 地区进程 预测 政策 |
| Key Words | Low Carbon Economic Transformation; Dynamic Evaluation Index; Regional Course; Forecasting; Energy and Environmental Policy |
| 内容提要 | 本文基于SBM-DDF-AAM低碳经济分析理论机制，构建了低碳转型评估的动态指数体系，并对改革以来中国各省级地区的低碳转型进程进行评估和预测。结果表明，中国低碳经济转型经历了上个世纪80年代中后期和本世纪初两个低潮发展时期，也经历了90年代颇有成效的成长阶段，近几年又开始迎来大转型的历史契机。由经济理论模型内生而成的低碳转型评估指数既注重增长质量，又考虑了GDP增速，即强调经济必须又好又快平衡发展且计算简单，可以作为GDP的替代考核指标。各省所估算评估指数值的差异以及低碳转型表现的不一致性进一步说明了中国的低碳转型进程尚处于不稳健的初期阶段，政府应制定因地制宜的能源环境政策来长期支持低碳经济大转型进程。 |
| Abstract | Based on SBM-DDF-AAM theoretical mechanism, this paper builds the dynamic index to evaluate the low carbon economic transformation of Chinese provinces since the reform. The measurement indicates that Chinese low carbon transformation underwent terrible development during 1986 -1990 and the beginning of this century and performed well in 1990s and currently. The evaluation index of low carbon transformation produced from economic model take both the growth quality and speed into account and can be employed as the more appropriate alternative of conventional GDP criterion. The heterogeneity and inconsistency of evaluated index for each province revealed that Chinese low carbon transformation is still during the unstable early stage and specific energy and environmental policies should be implemented to support the long-run process of great transformation in China. |
| 文章编号 | WP195 |
| 登载时间 | 2012-01-12 |
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