资本积累、劳动力流动与中国省际资本收益率
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| Title | Capital Accumulation, Labor Mobility and Chinese Provincial Return on Capital
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| 作者 | 罗知 郭熙保 |
| Author | Luo Zhi and Guo Xibao |
| 作者单位 | 武汉大学经济发展研究中心,武汉大学经济发展研究中心 |
| Organization | Center of Economics Development Research, Wuhan University |
| 作者Email | luozhi1225@gmail.com,xbguo@whu.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 资本积累 劳动力流动 资本收益率 |
| Key Words | Capital Accumulation; Labor Mobility; Return on Capital |
| 内容提要 | 资本收益率是影响投资和经济增长的最重要的因素之一。本文从一个规模报酬递增的二元经济结构模型出发，由于劳动力的流动和规模报酬的存在，资本的收益率呈现出倒U型的变化趋势。我们利用中国的省际资本收益率数据对资本收益率的变化趋势和影响因素做了实证检验，结果显示：（1）中国的资本收益率变化趋势符合模型的预测，资本的收益率随着资本存量的增加是先递增后递减的，劳动力从农业部门向现代部门的转移对资本收益率的增加有显著的正向影响；（2）绝大部分省份的资本收益率仍然会随着资本投资的增加而不断上升，我国的高投资率是合理的并且可以持续的；（3）制造业规模、存贷比指标、非国有企业所占的比重以及产品市场的发育程度也是影响资本收益率的重要因素。 |
| Abstract | The return on capital is one of the most important factors that affect the investment and economic growth. This paper constructs a dual-economy model in which the return on capital is of inverse-U shape. The reasons are capital concentration, labor mobility and scale economy. We calculate the Chinese provincial return on capital and use the Chinese provincial data to test the model. The results are:(1) The inverse-U shape of return on capital is evidenced;(2) The return of capital in most Chinese provinces will be higher with the increase of the investment;(3) The scale of industry, the financial index, the proportion of SOE and the development of product market are also the factors which affect the return on capital in China. |
| 文章编号 | WP222 |
| 登载时间 | 2012-02-16 |
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