通货膨胀、影响因素与信息渠道
阅读全文
下载全文 |
| Title | Inflation, Influence Factors and Information Channel
|
| 作者 | 孟庆斌 吴蕾 靳晓婷 |
| Author | Meng Qingbin, Wu Lei and Jin Xiaoting |
| 作者单位 | 中国人民大学财务金融系，南开大学金融系，南开大学国际经济研究所 |
| Organization | Renmin University of China;Nankai University |
| 作者Email | meng_q_b@yahoo.com.cn，wulei@mail.nankai.edu.cn, xiaoting.king@mail.nankai.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 通货膨胀 影响因素 信息长度 信息渠道 |
| Key Words | Inflation; Influence Factor; Information Length; Information Channel |
| 内容提要 | 宏观经济因素对通胀影响的内在传导机制错综复杂，因此，很难通过全面刻画影响途径，构建各变量影响通胀的模型。本文则从“信息渠道”的新视角解析各变量影响通胀的过程，利用信息长度区分不同变量的传导路径，构建一个可以近似模拟通胀影响传导效应的系统。本文首先引入信息长度概念；然后利用物理学中的热传导方程，建立各因素通过信息渠道影响通胀的传导模型；最后，利用向量误差修正模型冲击响应函数的长短期分解技术，研究了产出、货币、国际商品价格以及政策因素对通货膨胀的长期及短期影响，并且分析了各变量传导中的信息阻滞特征及原因。 |
| Abstract | It is always a complicated problem to model the transmission mechanism from macro-variable changes to inflation fluctuation. We give an analyzing framework in an alternative way which is using “information channel” covers the inflation transmission process. The length of the information channel is used to differentiate the path for different variable. And then we build the system that can simulate how inflation is affected through information channel. We first set up inflation affecting model by introducing equation of heat conduction in physics. Then the long-run effects and short-run effects of output, money and international commodity price are studies empirically by permanence- transitory decomposition. Moreover, we investigate the information block character for each variable and also provide explanations. |
| 文章编号 | WP239 |
| 登载时间 | 2012-03-09 |
|