对外贸易、经济增长与中国产业结构的演进——基于制造-服务国际分工的视角
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| Title | Foreign Trade, Economic Growth and Evolution of Industrial Structure in China
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| 作者 | 张捷 张媛媛 莫扬 |
| Author | Zhang Jie, Zhang Yuanyuan and Mo Yang |
| 作者单位 | 暨南大学经济学院 |
| Organization | College of Economics, Jinan University |
| 作者Email | tzjie@jnu.edu.cn，jnuzyy@163.com |
| 中文关键词 | 对外贸易 产业结构 工业化 服务化 演进 |
| Key Words | Foreign Trade; Industrial Structure; Industrialization; Tertiarization; Evolution |
| 内容提要 | 本文考察了改革开放以来中国产业结构的演进，发现近十来年服务业发展缓慢，结构演进趋于停滞。我们从“制造-服务”国际分工的视角探讨了中国产业结构演进停滞的原因，构建理论模型证明了在制造-服务国际分工形态下出口贸易的过度发展将导致对服务业的替代效应大于其收入效应和关联效应，使产业结构锁入“低水平过度工业化”的陷阱。本文采用联立方程计量模型进行的实证分析为上述假说提供了初步的经验证据。本文的研究表明：中国的出口导向型发展模式虽然有利于加快工业化进程，但却抑制了产业结构向服务化演进。全球金融危机以后，中国必须转变发展模式以促进经济结构转型升级。 |
| Abstract | This paper observes the changes of industrial structure since the adoption of reform and opening-up policy in China and finds that service sector has developed slowly over the past decade and evolution of industrial structure is inclined to stagnate. From the perspective of international "manufacturing-service" division of labor, we explore reasons for the stagnation of industrial structure and construct theoretical models to prove that over development of exports will make the crowding out effect on service sector larger than income effect and correlative effect in the "manufacturing-service" division system, leading industrial structure locked into the trap of “over-industrialization at low level”. Furthermore, we take empirical analysis through a simultaneous equation model and provide some preliminary evidence to our hypothesis above. It is concluded that export-oriented development pattern has accelerated industrialization but would probably inhibit industrial structure transforming from industrialization to tertiarization. After the International Financial Crisis, China need to change its development pattern in order to promote the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure. |
| 文章编号 | WP240 |
| 登载时间 | 2012-03-19 |
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