人口政策、劳动力结构与经济增长 阅读全文
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Title | Fertility-Control Policy, Labor Force Structure and Economic Growth
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作者 | 郭凯明 余靖雯 龚六堂 |
Author | Guo Kaiming, Yu Jingwen and Gong Liutang |
作者单位 | 北京大学光华管理学院 |
Organization | Guanghua School of Management, Peking University |
作者Email | guokaiming@gsm.pku.edu.cn,yujingwen@gsm.pku.edu.cn,ltgong@gsm.pku.edu.cn |
中文关键词 | 人口政策 劳动力结构 经济增长 |
Key Words | Fertility-Control Policy; Labor Force Structure; Economic Growth |
内容提要 | 本文在内生人口增长的模型中引入了人口政策,将劳动力结构内生化。当生产技术表现为资本与技能的互补性和知识的外溢性时,人口政策对经济增长的影响取决于资本与劳动力结构的匹配程度。如果技术工人与非技术工人劳动的生产率差异比较小或者替代性比较高,那么适度放开生育率的限制,可以提高生产过程中的资本技能比,促进经济长期增长。在存在技能偏向型技术进步时,家庭对于技能溢价的预期起着重要的作用。 |
Abstract | This paper studies the effect of fertility-control policy on economic growth when the labor force structure is endogenous. Under assumptions of capital-skill complementarity and knowledge externality, the match between capital and labor is critical. When the productivity difference is small or the elasticity of substitution is large between skilled and unskilled labor, capital-skill ratio and growth rate will increase if the restriction on fertility is relaxed. Moreover, the expectation on the skill premium matters when there is skill-biased technical change. |
文章编号 | WP287 |
登载时间 | 2012-06-29 |
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