中国企业出口持续时间及其决定因素
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| Title | The Duration of Firm-destination Export Relationships—Evidence from China
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| 作者 | 陈勇兵 李燕 周世民 |
| Author | Chen Yongbing ,Li Yan and Zhou Shimin |
| 作者单位 | 中南财经政法大学工商管理学院;央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院 |
| Organization | Zhongnan University of Economics and Law; Central University of Finance and Economics |
| 作者Email | yongbingchen@163.com;liyan_ywzq@126.com |
| 中文关键词 | 出口持续时间 生存分析 负时间依存性 离散时间生存分析模型 |
| Key Words | Duration of Trade Relationship; Cox Model; Negative Duration Dependence; Discrete Time Duration Model |
| 内容提要 | 出口持续时间研究为保障出口持续平稳发展提供了新视角。本文基于2000-2005年中国海关数据库和工业企业数据库的匹配数据估计了中国企业的出口持续时间，研究发现持续时间均值不到2年，中位值为3年，且存在明显的负时间依存性。我们进一步采用离散时间生存分析模型考察了出口持续时间的决定因素，结果发现，传统引力模型变量对持续时间的影响与其对于贸易流量的影响类似，企业层面的特征会对持续时间产生显著影响。同时，企业出口持续时间存在显著的区域和所有制差异。在此基础上，我们提出要建立预警机制、深化现有贸易关系以及制定恰当的贸易政策来推动出口贸易平稳发展。 |
| Abstract | The duration of trade relationships has been introduced to study trade dynamics in a new perspective. Based on the matching data of China’s customs database and Chinese industrial enterprise database during 2000-2005, we find that average duration of Chinese exporter is less than 2 years and median one is 3 years. Besides, the hazard rate of trade relationship has prominent negative duration dependence. We further use discrete time duration model to analyze determinants of trade relationship and reach the conclusion that the influences of variables in gravity model on the duration of export are consistent with those on the trade flows, meanwhile firm-level characteristics have remarkable influences on trade relationship. There exist significant differences in regional and ownership influences on trade duration. Therefore, we suggest that China should deepen existing trade relationship and carry out appropriate trade policies in order to keep stable export growth. |
| 文章编号 | WP309 |
| 登载时间 | 2012-07-27 |
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