游资变化、财政投资与非线性传递
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| Title | Fluctuation of Floating Capital, Financial Investment and Nonlinear Transfer
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| 作者 | 吕炜 刘晨晖 陈长石 |
| Author | Lü Wei, Liu Chenhui and Chen Changshi |
| 作者单位 | 东北财经大学经济与社会发展研究院，东北财经大学企业组织与产业组织研究中心 |
| Organization | Dongbei University of Finance and Economics |
| 作者Email | weilu008@gmail.com； |
| 中文关键词 | 游资规模 财政投资 财政政策 非线性 |
| Key Words | Amount of Floating Capital; Financial Investment; Fiscal Policy; Non-linear |
| 内容提要 | 针对当前宏观经济中被广泛关注的投机炒作问题，本文提出了财政投资扩张经由转轨背景下的特殊传导链条进而影响到国内游资变化的理论假设，并采用非线性STR模型对此进行了计量检验。研究发现，财政投资与国内游资总规模之间呈现正相关关系，但以阙值为界，其系数的变化并不明显，即相对于政府投资的扩张，游资总规模增长速度相对稳定；而对活跃于房地产市场中的游资来说，当财政投资力度较大时，其增加则会引发房地产市场游资规模的剧烈扩张。这说明，以政府投资为核心的积极财政政策在促成游资规模积累的同时，也对游资内部结构产生了一定的影响，财政投资已成为我国游资积累与集中的重要驱动力。 |
| Abstract | To study the public-concerned speculative problem, this paper proposes a hypothesis that financial investment expansion may affect the fluctuation of floating capital through special chain in China’s transitional process, and then we make an empirical test with non-linear STR models. The result shows that, financial investment positively correlated with the total amount of domestic floating capital, but bounded by threshold, the coefficients did not change significantly. In other words, relative to the expansion of government investment, the growth of domestic floating capital is stable. However, in real estate market, when the financial investment expanding acutely, the increase will trigger dramatic expansion of domestic floating capital. This shows that as the core of fiscal policy, the financial investment not only contributes to the accumulation of floating capital, but also influences its internal structure. Then financial investment has become an important driving force of accumulation and concentration of domestic floating capital. |
| 文章编号 | WP427 |
| 登载时间 | 2013-02-07 |
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