金融发展、金融结构与经济增长：32个国家的经验证据
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| Title | Financial Development, Financial Structure and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from 32 Countries.
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| 作者 | 纪志宏 卜永祥 |
| Author | Ji Zhihong and Bu Yongxiang |
| 作者单位 | 中国人民银行研究局 |
| Organization | Research Department, the People’s Bank of China |
| 作者Email | jzhihong@pbc.gov.cn；buyongxiang@ccer.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 金融发展 金融结构 经济增长 中位数回归 面板数据模型 |
| Key Words | Financial Development; Financial Structure; Economic Growth; Median Regression; Panel Data Model |
| 内容提要 | 基于经济决定金融的基本假定，本文运用世界银行金融发展和结构数据库，区分银行主导型和市场主导型金融体系国家，对1960至2009年间32个世界主要经济体和其中的17个银行主导型金融体系国家两组样本，选择6个金融深化和金融结构指标，对这些指标与经济发展水平（人均GDP）等指标的关系，分别建立了分位数回归（中位数回归）模型、混合回归模型和面板数据回归模型，并把回归模型的拟合值作为经济发展水平决定的金融发展水平和金融结构的常态值，对比分析了中国实际值与常态值之间的关系。研究发现，中国信贷融资过度，股票市场、寿险市场和私人债券市场发展超过经济发展水平决定的全球常态水平，而财产险市场发展不足，金融结构调整的空间较大。本文还根据模型预测了“十二五”时期中国金融业发展水平和结构指标的适度值，提出中国金融业已进入结构优化和质量提升的历史新阶段，给出了相关政策建议。 |
| Abstract | Using World Bank Database of Financial Development and Structure, this paper sets up Quantile regression (median regression) model, OLS model on pooled data and Panel Data regression model respectively on 6 main financial development and structure indicators, and explores relationships of these indicators with economic development (proxy by GDP per capita) under the assumption that financial developments are fundamentally driven by real economic activities.We adopt samples of 32 world main economies as well as 17 economies with bank-based financial system ranging from year 1960 to 2009. Taking fitted values as world normal values, this paper also checks misalignment of China’s real values with world normal ones. Evidence shows that China’s credit to private sector is overdeveloped, and stock market capitalization, life insurance premium and private bond capitalization are also above world normal levels, meanwhile, China’s non-life insurance is underdeveloped and there is a big gap for China’s financial structure to move from a strongly bank-based one to a market-oriented system. This paper also forecasts preferred values of those 6 indicators within 12th five-year period and puts forward policy suggestions on China financial sector restructuring and efficiency enhancing. |
| 文章编号 | WP472 |
| 登载时间 | 2013-06-07 |
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