中国城市制造业就业的乘数效应分析：城镇化、经济集聚与服务业就业创造的视角
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| Title | Urbanization, Economic Agglomeration, and Employment Multiplier Effects in China
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| 作者 | 袁志刚 高虹 |
| Author | Yuan Zhigang and GaoHong |
| 作者单位 | 复旦大学经济学院 |
| Organization | School of Economics, Fudan University |
| 作者Email | zgyuan@fudan.edu.cn；gaohongfd@gmail.com |
| 中文关键词 | 地方性经济发展政策 就业乘数效应 城镇化 经济集聚 |
| Key Words | Place-based policy; Employment multiplier effect; Urbanization; Economic agglomeration |
| 内容提要 | 城市制造业就业的扩张会对本地的服务业就业产生促进作用，但这种就业乘数效应的大小会受到城镇化政策和城市规模的影响。本文利用中国地级城市2003年到2009年的数据，使用工具变量的方法，估计了城市制造业就业对服务业就业的乘数效应。本文发现，城市制造业就业每增加1%，会带来服务业就业0.397%的上升，其中生活性服务业的受益程度最大。此外，城镇化水平的提高和城市规模的扩大会对制造业就业的乘数效应产生促进作用。而在城镇化水平较低和城市规模不足的地区，制造业就业的扩张非但没有促进服务业就业的增加，反而挤出了当地的服务业就业，从而抑制了服务业的发展。 |
| Abstract | Whether place-based policies are effective or not is a central topic in urban economics. The magnitude of employment multiplier effect is of great importance for local government policies. Using city level employment data from China in 2003-2009, the multiplier effect of manufacturing employment on local service employment is investigated. Regression results from instrumental variable estimations of fixed-effect models show that manufacturing employments have significantly positive influences on local service employments. Every one percentage increase in manufacturing jobs increases the city’s service jobs by 0.397 percentage points. The multiplier effect is the largest for consumer services. Besides, we find that employment multiplier effect is influenced by urbanization and city scale. Manufacturing employments only increase service jobs in cities with higher urbanization levels or larger city scales. In those less urbanized or smaller cities, however, manufacturing employments actually decreases service employments due to crowding out effects. |
| 文章编号 | WP511 |
| 登载时间 | 2013-08-28 |
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