两岸四地货币合作的可行性研究——基于最优货币区(OCA)指数模型
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| Title | A Study on the Feasibility of Monetary Cooperation among Mainland, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao ——Based on the OCA Index M
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| 作者 | 李雪莲 王锦阳 |
| Author | Li Xuelian and Wang Jinyang |
| 作者单位 | 西南财经大学 |
| Organization | Southwest University of Finance and Economics |
| 作者Email | xlli@swufe.edu.cn; jinyangwang86@gmail.com |
| 中文关键词 | 两岸四地 面板OCA指数模型 区域货币合作 |
| Key Words | Mainland, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao; panel OCA index model; regional monetary cooperation |
| 内容提要 | 本文以最优货币区理论和OCA指数法为基础，运用面板数据模型对中国大陆、香港、澳门和台湾地区1989—2009年的样本数据进行实证分析，得出：经济结构差异、通货膨胀率差异、利率差异和货币供给扰动差异是影响两岸四地货币合作的主要因素，并首次发现，货币供给扰动差异是影响区域货币合作的重要因素，继而进一步构建最优货币区（OCA）指数模型，计算了两岸四地1991—2008年的OCA指数，考察了两岸四地进行区域货币合作的综合成本及其演化趋势，得出，两岸四地区域货币合作是可行的。文章最后对两岸四地货币合作的前景进行展望并提出相应的政策建议。 |
| Abstract | This paper conducts empirical analysis on the sample data of mainland China, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan from 1989-2009, by the virtue of panel data model according to the optimal currency area theory (OCA theory) and optimal currency area index (OCA index) method. We find that the major factors affecting monetary cooperation between the Four Regions across Taiwan Straits (FRTS) are the differences in economic structure, inflation rate, interest rate and money supply disturbance. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper that finds the significant influence of the difference in money supply disturbance on regional monetary cooperation, in the empirical study on the OCA. Based on the results, in this paper, we introduce the OCA index model and calculate the OCA indexes of the FRTS from 1991 to 2008. Based on a thorough evaluation of the comprehensive costs of monetary cooperation, this paper shows that the regional monetary cooperation among Mainland, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao is feasible. In the end, this paper discusses the prospect of the monetary cooperation and offers some advices to promote monetary cooperation on policy. |
| 文章编号 | WP647 |
| 登载时间 | 2014-08-08 |
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