地铁开通对房价影响的实证研究——兼谈对当前“地铁热”的反思
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| Title | Impact of Metro Opening on Housing Price: Empirical Analysis--Rethink the present “Metro-Hot”
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| 作者 | 王岳龙 |
| Author | Wang Yuelong |
| 作者单位 | 江西财经大学 |
| Organization | Jiangxi University of finance and economics; China Academy of Society Science |
| 作者Email | wangyuelong@jxufe.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 地铁热 房价 政策评估 处理效应 情景模拟 |
| Key Words | Metro-Hot; Hosing Price; Policy Evaluation; Treatment Effect; Counterfactual Analysis |
| 内容提要 | 本文利用2004-2011年全国35个大中城市的房价数据，采用Maddala(1983)提出的处理效应模型，对地铁开通对城市平均房价影响进行了十分细致而深入的政策评估，同时对始于2004年的这股“地铁热”，从房价宏观调控角度展开了深刻反思。本文实证研究发现：（1）地铁开通对城市商品房价上涨的贡献率约为5.06%，其中更主要是对二三线城市和商业楼盘产生影响。（2）我国城市是否开通地铁与其经济发展水平没有必然联系，也并不是完全为了解决交通堵塞问题。（3）按照2020年我国轨道交通规模6000公里的规划，将会因为仅仅开通地铁导致房价上涨16.6%，情景模拟结果表明，这会使得开通地铁的33个大中城市居民一家人在2020年需要多工作2.28年才能买的起房，住房负担提高了近四分之一。本文从稳定房价的角度出发，主张二三线城市地铁开通应该提高门槛，从严控制。 |
| Abstract | This study estimates the impact of metro opening on housing price using housing price data of 35 large and medium-sized cities from 2004-2011 and employing treatment effect model proposed by Maddala. As well, this study rethinks the “Metro-Hot” phenomenon started in 2000 from the perspective of macroeconomic regulation and control to housing price. Empirical results show: 1) The metro opening contribution to commercial housing rising is about 12.63%. The counterfactual results show that the rising levels of housing prices will be over those cities where already opened metros, which is caused by “Metro-Hot” to a great extent. 2) Opening metro or not in a city has no necessary correlation with local economic development level, which is also not the fundamental starting point for solving traffic congestion. 3) According to the Plan of Rail Transit System 6000 km in 2020, the housing price will rise 26% only because of metro opening. Scenario simulation results show that rising housing price will make residents in 33 metro cities to work extra 3.45 years to afford for housing in 2020. From the perspective of stabilizing housing price, this study advocates to strictly control the opening of metro around and develop it gradually. |
| 文章编号 | WP653 |
| 登载时间 | 2014-08-12 |
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