告别非李嘉图制度 破解周期性的通胀
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| Title | Farewell Non-Ricardian Regime & Cracked cyclical Inflation
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| 作者 | 崔惠民 李文庆 崔永 |
| Author | Cui Huimin, Li Wenqing and Cui Yong |
| 作者单位 | 安徽财经大学；国家发改委重大项目稽查办；中国人民银行货币政策司 |
| Organization | Anhui University of Finance and Economic; National Development and Reform Commission; People's Bank of China |
| 作者Email | cuihuimin@ruc.edu.cn；liwq@ruc.edu.cn;choi_younger@yahoo.com.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 财政赤字 通货膨胀 铸币税 货币政策 |
| Key Words | Budget Deficit; Inflation; Seigniorage; Monetary Policy |
| 内容提要 | 我国财政收支持续近30年的赤字状态，长期赤字如果不能以税收收入作为担保，政府必然最终会通过征收铸币税的方式来弥补，在政府的举债能力不受到任何限制情况下，极有可能会引起恶性通货膨胀。基于此，我们从政府跨期预算约束方程着手，建立一个理论模型和分析框架，从理论上探讨我国财政赤字与通货膨胀之间的关系，并进行相关计量检验和实证分析。结论得出，在当前政府融资体制安排下，我国的通货膨胀很大程度上是一种财政现象，财政政策在价格水平决定中发挥主导作用，货币政策处于从属地位。如果想要从根本上治愈周期性的通货膨胀，就必须进行相应的财政政策调整、财政体制改革和货币体制改革，健全政府融资体制。 |
| Abstract | In the past 30 years, China’s budget expenditures have been exceeded revenues almost through the period. Theoretically speaking, if long-term budget deficit can not be offset by government taxes, then it would be offset by seigniorage, then inevitably lead to high inflation. Moreover, if the fiscal authority dominated the monetary authority, the price level would be determined by fiscal authority itself. If the government’s barrowing capacities have no restriction, the high inflation maybe occur. Thus, we establish a theoretical model & analysis framework from the government budget constrain function & make the corresponding econometric test & empirical analysis. The main conclusions are as follows: At the present government financing system, the inflation in China is a fiscal phenomenon in a large degree. In order to control the periodic inflation, we should not only adjust the fiscal policy, but also reform the fiscal system & the monetary system to perfect the government financing system. |
| 文章编号 | WP655 |
| 登载时间 | 2014-08-15 |
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