微博、信息披露与分析师盈余预测
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| Title | Weibo, Information Disclosure and Analysts' Earnings Forecasts
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| 作者 | 胡军 王甄 |
| Author | Hu Jun and Wang Zhen |
| 作者单位 | 上海财经大学 |
| Organization | School of Finance, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics |
| 作者Email | hoojun98@126.com;wang.zhen@mail.shufe.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 微博 信息技术 非财务信息 分析师 盈余预测 |
| Key Words | Weibo; Information Technology; Nonfinancial Information; Security Analyst; Earnings Forecasts |
| 内容提要 | 随着信息技术的发展，社交网络在公众和公司中得到广泛的使用，这一发展颠覆性地改变了信息产生的数量、类型及其传播方式。分析师作为金融市场最专业的信息使用者，无疑会受到这一变化的影响。本文研究了上市公司开通微博对分析师盈余预测的影响。我们发现：（1）开通微博以后，分析师盈余预测的修正频率增加，说明分析师会使用微博信息及时更新盈余预测；（2）开通微博以后，分析师的平均盈余预测偏差和盈余预测分歧度都得到显著地下降，说明微博信息是分析师进行预测的重要信息源，有助于其更好的了解和分析公司的经营活动；（3）开通微博以后，公司股价对分析师盈余预测修正的反应更加显著。一个合理的解释是投资者对微博发布的信息反应不足，而分析师能够帮助理解这些信息。本文研究结论对于监管部门完善相关信息披露标准以及如何最大化分析师在资本市场信息定价效率方面的作用都有一定的现实意义。 |
| Abstract | A market in which prices always "fully reflect" available information is called "efficient". However, due to the dramatic development of information technology, social network has been widely used in public and companies. The amount, types and the transmission routes of information have been changed drastically. As the most professional information users, security analysts' forecasting behaviors will be influenced by this change undoubtedly. Therefore, this paper studies how the using of weibo among companies impacts the earnings forecasting behaviors of security analysts. We find that: (1) the frequency of forecasting revisions increases after the launch of weibo, which means weibo discloses enough information which would force analysts to revise their forecasts; (2) the average forecasting error and dispersion both decrease after the using of weibo, which means the information disclosed by weibo is an important source helping developing analysts' earnings forecasts; (3) sensitivity of stock price to analysts' forecasting revision increases after the using of weibo. One possible explanation for this phenomenon is that individual investors cannot fully understand the information disclosed by weibo, hence this information can be treated as "incremental information" brought by analysts since they can interpret this nonfinancial information into their earnings forecast and research reports effectively. |
| 文章编号 | WP667 |
| 登载时间 | 2014-08-22 |
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