国家心理文化异质性与经常账户失衡
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| Title | Psychological Culture of Nations and Current Account Imbalances
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| 作者 | 王伟 杨娇辉 王曦 |
| Author | Wang Wei, Yang Jiaohui and Wang Xi |
| 作者单位 | 中山大学岭南学院；中山大学国际商学院； |
| Organization | Lingnan School, Sun Yat-Sen University; International Business School, Sun Yat-Sen University |
| 作者Email | nkwangwei6@126.com；yangjiaoh@mail.sysu.edu.cn；lnswx@mail.sysu.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 心理文化 经常账户失衡 外部平衡再评估 优势分析 |
| Key Words | Current account imbalances; Psychological culture; External balance assessment; Dominance analysis. |
| 内容提要 | 本文旨在考察国家心理文化对经常账户平衡的贡献。首先，本文从心理文化差异下居民的异质性储蓄/消费行为入手，构造心理文化对经常账户影响的理论分析框架；其次，在61个经济体1981-2011年面板数据的基础上，量化分析心理文化对经常账户持续失衡的贡献。研究发现，心理文化差异确实是当前全球经常账户持续失衡的重要因素：更注重长期偏好、对不确定性容忍程度更高的经济体经历更大的经常账户顺差，反之则经历更大的经常账户逆差；在优势分析中，心理文化对经常账户平衡的解释力超过了财政余额、金融发展水平以及政府冲销干预等因素；在外部平衡评估的分析中，在2012年中美5.06%的经常账户余额差异中，代表长期持续性影响的心理文化因素贡献高达3.76%。 |
| Abstract | This study aims to investigate the contributions of the psychological culture of nation to current account imbalances. We start from heterogeneous saving/consumption patterns inherent in different psychological cultures and establish a theoretical framework to examine influences of culture on current account imbalances; then it is followed by a relevant quantity analysis based on the panel data of 61 economies covering the period from 1981 to 2011. We found that psychological culture is a key factor that accounts for the persistent current account imbalances. More specifically, economies with long-term preferences and low uncertainty avoidance tend to experience higher current account surplus and vice versa. Moreover, dominance analysis indicates that the explanatory power of psychological culture is higher than other typical factors such as fiscal deficit, financial development and sterilized interventions. The analysis based on external balance assessment (EBA) also shows that the differences in psychological culture account for around 3.27% of current account imbalance between China and USA. |
| 文章编号 | WP717 |
| 登载时间 | 2014-09-25 |
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