等待还是跟进？企业界应对投资政策不确定性的一个集体策略
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| Title | Wait-and-See or Follow Up? A Collective Strategy of Enterprises Coping with the Uncertainty of Investment Policy
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| 作者 | 罗知 徐现祥 |
| Author | Luo Zhi and Xu Xianxiang |
| 作者单位 | 武汉大学经济管理学院；中山大学岭南学院 |
| Organization | Economics and Management School, Wuhan University；Lingnan (University) College,Sun Yat-sen University |
| 作者Email | luozhi1225@gmail.com；lnsxuxx@mail.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 投资政策不确定性；短期投资；地方官员 |
| Key Words | Uncertainty of Investment Policy; Short Term of Investment; Local Official |
| 内容提要 | 近年来，企业如何应对政策不确定性使其成为促进发展的有力工具已经成为一个棘手的问题。本文尝试放松实物期权理论的一个隐含假定，提出企业界应对投资政策不确定性的一个集体策略：“先行先试+观望等待”，即部分企业选择先行先试，客观上有助于消除投资政策不确定性；其他企业选择观望等待，短期内减缓投资。在实证上，本文采用年末实际投资与年初计划投资额差额度量投资政策不确定性，构建了一个具有省级投资政策不确定性的中国工业企业数据库，采用省级正职领导人变更为工具变量进行两阶段最小二乘法估计发现，在2001-2007年间，面对投资政策不确定性，与政府联系紧密的企业短期内增加投资，其他企业短期内减少投资。本文的发现是稳健的，为企业界集体应对政策不确定性提供了一种新思路。 |
| Abstract | In these years, how enterprises cope with the uncertainty of investment policy has become a very knotty problem. This paper tries to loosen an implied assumption of real-options effect and put forward a collective strategy of enterprises dealing with the uncertainty of investment policy. We point out that a collective strategy of enterprises facing the uncertainty of investment policy is wait-and-see and follow up which means some of the enterprises choose to wait-and-see while the others choose to follow up. We use the deviation of the real investment at the end of one year from the planned investment at the beginning of this year to measure the uncertainty of investment policy. Using the date and the Chinese industrial enterprises data, we test the collective strategy mentioned above. In order to avoid the endogenesis, we use the governor of provinces changes as the instrument. The results show that, facing the uncertainty of investment policy, the enterprises which have close relationship with the government will follow up, while the other enterprises will wait-and-see. Our findings are robust and provide a new thought for the enterprises coping with the uncertainty. |
| 文章编号 | WP726 |
| 登载时间 | 2014-10-10 |
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