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中国城市雾霾污染的健康经济损失研究——以可吸入颗粒物(PM10)为例
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TitleA Study on Health-related Economic Loss caused by haze pollution in Cities of China  
作者乔晓楠 林蕴晖 姜楠  
AuthorQiao Xiaonan, lin Yunhui and Jiang Nan  
作者单位南开大学经济学院 
OrganizationSchool of Economics, Nankai University 
作者Emailxiaonan_qiao@163.com 
中文关键词PM10、城市雾霾污染、健康经济损失 
Key WordsPM10, haze pollution of cities, health-related economic losses 
内容提要本文针对构成雾霾的主要污染物PM10,选取了30个省会城市(直辖市)作为样本,且综合考虑超死亡、呼吸系统疾病、循环系统疾病以及慢性病等健康危害,对2003年至2012年的雾霾污染健康经济损失进行了测算。研究发现:以2012年为例,样本城市雾霾污染健康经济损失的平均值为96亿元,占当年GDP的比例平均为1.6%,损失相当可观。然而,十年间虽然绝对损失不断上升,但占比却持续下降,进而也反映出生态文明建设所取得的积极进展。从区域上看,由于北方城市的PM10年均浓度要明显高于南方城市,因此在损失占比方面也呈现出同样的特征。其中,直辖市的绝对损失最高,而西北地区城市损失占比最大。从损失的构成上看,慢性病的影响最大,但循环系统疾病的影响近年来快速上升也值得关注。此外,基于敏感性分析发现,未来GDP年均增速的提高会导致损失增加,而污染浓度的下降则使得损失减少,且后者的影响更为显著。 
AbstractFocused on the key pollutant of haze constitution, PM10, this article included 30 provincial capital cities (municipalities) as samples and took into comprehensive consideration of health hazards such as excess deaths, respiratory diseases, circulation system diseases and chronic diseases, and also measured the health-related economic losses caused by haze pollution from 2003 to 2012. This study has found out: take year 2012 for example, the average health-related economic loss of sample cities caused by haze pollution is 9.6 billion yuan, and the average ratio of economic loss to GDP is 1.6%, indicating a significant loss. However, although the absolute loss has been rising unremittingly during the past 10 years, the ratio has declined continually, which reflects the positive progress cultivated by the ecological civilization construction. In terms of region, average annual concentration of PM10 in northern is significantly higher than that in southern, and so does the ratio of economic loss to GDP. Among all cities, absolute loss is the highest in municipalities and northwestern cities have the highest ratio of loss to GDP. In terms of cause of loss, chronic diseases have the greatest impact nowadays, but the rapidly rising impact of circulation diseases is also worth attention. Additionally, based on the sensitivity analysis, we found that increasing annual growth rate of GDP in the future will lead to increase of health-related economic losses, and decline in pollutant concentration will lead to falling losses. Whereas, the latter one’s impact is more significant.  
文章编号WP809 
登载时间2015-01-20 
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