CPI与PPI“背离”的结构性解释——基于三部门动态随机一般均衡模型的研究
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| Title | An Investigation on the “Divergence” Between CPI and PPI based on Three Sectors Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Mod
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| 作者 | 吕捷 王高望 |
| Author | Lv Jie and Wang Gaowang |
| 作者单位 | 中国人民大学；山东大学经济研究院 |
| Organization | Renmin University of China;Shandong Uninversity |
| 作者Email | lujie@ruc.edu.cn；gaowang.wang@sdu.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | CPI与PPI背离 货币政策 三部门模型 DSGE |
| Key Words | Divergence of CPI and PPI; Monetary Policy; Three Sectors Model; DSGE |
| 内容提要 | 2000年以来中国的两大物价指数CPI、PPI出现了多次“背离”式增长。尤其是最近三年（2011-2013），CPI持续上涨而PPI连续下跌，这种不同物价指数的倒挂现象使得中央银行运用货币政策稳定物价水平的能力受到了极大限制。本文通过构建三部门动态随机一般均衡模型（Three-Sector DSGE），探讨了CPI与PPI背离的结构性原因。研究发现，央行采用的宽松货币政策一方面导致劳动力不断从基础农业部门流向加工服务部门，同时也推动了加工服务部门的扩张和基础农业部门的收缩；另一方面使得CPI不断上涨而PPI在经历一个短期的上升以后开始不断下降，从而出现了CPI与PPI的阶段性“背离”。本文不仅较好地解释了CPI和PPI背离的结构性原因，同时也为央行制定更为有效的货币政策提供了一个新的视角。 |
| Abstract | Since 2000, China's two major price indexes CPI and PPI have appeared "divergence" growth for many times. Especially in the last three years (2011-2013) this phenomenon was more obvious. This inversion growth of different price indexes has weakened the ability of central bank to stabilize prices level. By constructing three sectors dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (Three Sectors DSGE), we explore the structural causes of CPI and PPI’s divergence. The study found that the flow of labor between different sectors has promoted the expansion of the service sector and contraction in the agricultural sector. CPI raised ups while PPI experienced a short-term rise then began to decline, thus resulting in "divergence" between the CPI and PPI. The three-sector model constructed in this paper is not only good at explaining CPI and PPI's “divergence" growth, but also used for the study of the effectiveness of monetary policy under current china’s dual economic structure. |
| 文章编号 | WP816 |
| 登载时间 | 2015-02-06 |
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