经济增长目标管理
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| Title | Economic Growth Targeting
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| 作者 | 徐现祥 刘毓芸 |
| Author | Xu Xianxiang and Liu Yuyun |
| 作者单位 | 中山大学岭南学院 |
| Organization | Lingnan College, Sun Yat-sen University |
| 作者Email | lnsxuxx@mail.sysu.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 熊彼特增长模型 经济增长目标 投资审批 |
| Key Words | Schumpeterian Growth Model; Growth Target; Approval of Investment |
| 内容提要 | 自党的十二大以来，党中央可信地承诺了一条约为7%的增长目标路径，主导着中国的经济增长，但鲜有文献考察这种现象。本文从投资需要审批的事实出发，把投资审批引入熊彼特增长模型，证明了，当这个审批经济体处于马尔科夫完美均衡时，经济增长目标管理是一种利益兼容机制，能促进经济增长。具体而言，中央为激励地方官员采取促进经济增长的投资政策而设定增长目标，同时默许地方官员获得审批租金；地方官员对此做出反应，选择最优的投资政策，实现经济增长目标。从而，事前设定的增长目标主导审批经济体的实际经济增长。本文还证明了，在审批经济体里，经济增长目标低于市场力量所能够实现的经济增长。因此，行政审批改革是保增长目标的根本。最后，本文采用2000-2012年间31个省级政府所做的政府工作报告，验证了模型的核心结论。 |
| Abstract | Since 1982, CPC National Congress has been creditably targeting about 7% growth rate for China economy, which might provide a seminal perspective to understanding Chinese growth miracle. Based on the stylized fact that investment requires approval from governments, the paper incorporates the approval of investment into Schumpeterian growth model and shows that there exists a unique Markovian perfect equilibrium. In equilibrium, in order to incentivize the local leaders to carry out growth-promoting policy, the central government endogenously sets the optimal growth target, and transforms local leaders into stakeholders of economic growth by rents from their ability to choose the current policy. The local leaders rationally response to implement the optimal policy and meet the growth target. The endogenous growth target, therefore, determines actual growth path in the economy. Empirically, the paper validates some predictions of the model with the new dataset on growth target for 31 provincial governments during the period of 2000-2012. |
| 文章编号 | WP818 |
| 登载时间 | 2015-02-06 |
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