被遗忘的总供给：财政政策扩张一定会导致通货膨胀吗？——基于中国财政政策实践的讨论
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| Title | The Forgotten Aggregate Supply: Is Fiscal Expansion Inflationary?
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| 作者 | 郭长林 |
| Author | Guo Changlin |
| 作者单位 | 东北财经大学经济学院 |
| Organization | The School of Economics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics |
| 作者Email | econwork@163.com |
| 中文关键词 | 生产性政府支出 总供给 通货膨胀 |
| Key Words | Productive Government Expenditure; Aggregate Supply; Inflation |
| 内容提要 | 一般认为，财政政策扩张本身就是引致通货膨胀的重要原因。本文通过将生产性政府支出引入一个仅具有价格粘性的新凯恩斯模型，并结合我国1998Q1～2014Q1的宏观季度数据对模型参数进行贝叶斯估计，分别从理论分析和经验分析两个维度对这一问题加以重新审视，得到如下主要结论：（1）生产型财政政策扩张除了能够通过总需求直接导致通货膨胀之外，还能够通过总供给对通货膨胀及其预期产生抑制作用，而后者与政府支生产性的大小密切相关。当政府支出的生产性达到一定程度时，其对总供给的影响将最终发挥主导作用，导致通货膨胀及其预期下降；（2）贝叶斯估计结果显示，在样本期内我国的财政政策本身在一定程度上起到了抑制通货膨胀及其预期的作用；（3）与财政政策相比，信贷与货币政策是影响我国通货膨胀更为根本的因素。上述结论在不同的偏好形式、投资调整成本函数和劳动力市场设定下均十分稳健。此外，本文对消息冲击下的财政政策加以分析表明，提前释放有关财政政策的信号能够通过引导公众预期对稳定经济波动发挥明显的积极作用。 |
| Abstract | Generally speaking, fiscal expansion will lead to inflation. This paper will reconsider this issue by introducing productive government expenditure into a new Keynesian model with only sticky prices, and estimating it by Bayesian methods using the sample from 1998:1 to 2014:1. We find that (1) productive fiscal policy can influence inflation dynamics through both aggregate demand and aggregate supply channel. Although the former will push inflation, the latter will depress it. The relative strength depends on the productivity; (2) Based on quarterly data in China, we find that fiscal expansion pull inflation down significantly in the sample period; (3) Credit and monetary policy are more important factors determining inflation. In addition, these discoveries are robust to different form of utility function, investment adjustment cost function and alternative specifications on labor market. By examining the effects of fiscal news shock, we find that revealing relevant information about future policy is helpful to stabilize the public’s expectation. |
| 文章编号 | WP845 |
| 登载时间 | 2015-03-27 |
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