省级政府债务可持续性的测度、成因与对策 阅读全文
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Title | Sustainability measurement, Causality Aanlysis and Policy for Provincial Government Debt
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作者 | 徐占东 王雪标 |
Author | Xu Zhandong and Wang Xuebiao |
作者单位 | 东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院 |
Organization | Department of math and quantitative economics, Dongbei university of finance and economics |
作者Email | xuzhandong@163.com;wangxb@dufe.edu.cn |
中文关键词 | 地方政府债务 债务的可持续性 内生增长模型 财政收入/财政支出比 |
Key Words | Municipal debt; Debt sustainability; Endogenuos growth model; Revenue/expenditure ratio |
内容提要 | 利用财政收入/财政支出比反映地方政府财政盈余状态,建立包含“借新还旧”债务约束的内生增长模型,分析地方政府债务可持续条件,解决“借新还旧”策略下地方政府债务可持续性的测度问题。分析结果表明地方政府债务可持续需要满足财政盈余、达到最优路径和不超过最大债务规模三个条件。根据可持续条件,将地方政府债务不可持续程度从小到大分分为弱不可持续,较强不可持续和强不可持续性三类,克服了现有研究只能区分可持续和不可持续,无法区分不可持续程度的问题。对省级政府债务可持续性检验的结果表明:一是从整体看,所有31个省市的地方政府债务都是不可持续的。其中12个省市是较强不可持续,19个省市是强不可持续。二是从区域看,东部省市债务不可持续程度要低于中部和西部。对地方政府债务不可持续的成因分析表明,政府支出效率是导致债务不可持续的重要原因。解决地方政府债务不可持续的对策和建议有三:一是短期内采取延长偿债期限和“借新还旧”的偿债方式,化解违约风险;二是长期看,首先要改革财权,增加地方政府财政收入,确保地方政府在较短时期内财政预算盈余。三是从长期看,必须改革事权,减少地方政府在产出效率较高行业的财政支出。 |
Abstract | Revenue/expenditure ratio was used to reflect the state of the local government budget surplus. An endogenous growth model with “rolling over debt” constraints was established to analysis sustainability conditions of municipal debt. The results suggest that municipal debt is sustainability provided that it meet three condition at the same time, including fiscal surplus, optimal path and below the maximum debt size .By the sustainable conditions, the un-sustainable degree of municipal debt can be classified into weak unsustainable, strong unsustainable and stronger unsustainable. While the sustainable test of existing research can distinguish between sustainable and unsustainable, can not distinguish the unsustainable level. The empirical research supplied some key results. Firstly, municipal debt of all 31 provinces are not sustainable, in which 19 provinces debt are stronger unsustainable, 13 provinces are strong unsustainable. Secondly, debt unsustainable degree of the eastern provinces are lower than the central and western. The causality analysis of municipal debt unsustainablility show that the important causality of unsustainablity is the output efficiency of government spending. In order to solve municipal debt unsustainability, the three key issue are needed to do. Firstly, to extend the redeem period and take the " rolling over debt " policy can reduce the short-term default risk. Secondly, to reform the property rights and increase local government revenue can ensure the local government budget getting surplus during relatively shorter period. Thirdly, to reform the expenditure structure and cut down the local governments expenditure in the higher output efficiency industry can reduce the overall governments expenditure. |
文章编号 | WP851 |
登载时间 | 2015-03-31 |
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