居民消费需求的规模效应及其演变机制——基于平滑转移的阈值协整检验
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| Title | The Scale Effect and Evolution Mechanism about Resident Consumption Demand
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| 作者 | 欧阳峣 付元海 王松 |
| Author | Ouyang yao，Fu yuanhai and Wang Song |
| 作者单位 | 湖南师范大学商学院；广州大学经济与统计学院 |
| Organization | Hunan Normal University;Guangzhou University |
| 作者Email | ouyangyao008@163.com；fuyuanhai1126@163.com； |
| 中文关键词 | 消费需求；规模效应；演变机制 |
| Key Words | Consumption demand Scale effect Evolution mechanism |
| 内容提要 | 人口众多是大国经济的初始特征，由此可以推演出消费需求的规模效应。中国需求结构的矛盾，特别是居民消费需求不足，已经成为制约中国经济持续稳定增长的深层矛盾，使得大国优势没有得到充分发挥。本文采用阈值协整模型对1955-2013年的数据进行实证检验，结果表明中国居民消费需求规模对经济增长的长期效应随居民消费率的变化而变化。具体来说，当居民消费率低于0.539时，长期效应上升0.1，第2年经济增长率仅上升0.077；居民消费率高于0.539时，长期效应上升0.1，第2年经济增长率则上升0.121。改革开放以来，居民消费率不断下降的事实，造成居民消费对经济增长的贡献不断下降，经济增长主要依赖投入驱动，实证研究结论与这一事实相符。因此，中国要实现经济增长方式由投入驱动向需求拉动转变，关键是要扩大居民消费相对规模。 |
| Abstract | A large population is the initial characteristics of large countries’ economy, which can deduce the scale effect of consumption demand. The contradiction of Chinese demand structures, especially the deficiency of resident consumption demand, has become a deep contradiction to constrain the sustained and stable economic growth in China and has made not good use of the country’s advantages. This paper makes an empirical test on the data of 1955-2013 by using threshold cointegration model. The results show that the long-term effect of Chinese resident consumption demand to economic growth will change with the changes of resident consumption rate .Specifically, when the resident consumption rate is less than 0.539 and the long-term effects rose 0.1, the second annual economic growth rate only rose 0.077; when the resident consumption rate is higher than 0.539 and the long-term effects rose 0.1, the second annual economic growth rate only rose 0.121. Since the reform and opening up, the fact of the decrease of the resident consumption rate has caused that the consumer’s contribution to economic growth is constant declining and economic growth mainly depends on investment driven. The conclusion of the empirical research corresponds with that fact. Therefore, the key to realize the way of economic growth which changes from investment driven to the demand in China is to expand consumption relative scale. |
| 文章编号 | WP872 |
| 登载时间 | 2015-05-12 |
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