中国经济增长的“7时代”是新常态吗？——基于经济波动强度与驱动因素的动态识别研究
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| Title | Is the “7 era” the New Normal Economic Growth in China?
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| 作者 | 林建浩 王美今 |
| Author | Lin Jianhao and Wang Meijin |
| 作者单位 | 中山大学岭南学院 |
| Organization | Lingnan College, Sun Yat-sen University |
| 作者Email | hzcg9@126.com；lnswmj@mail.sysu.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 新常态 大稳健 增速换挡 结构冲击 |
| Key Words | New Normal; Great Moderation; Slowdown; Structural Shocks |
| 内容提要 | 中国自2012年以来进入经济增速放缓的“7时代”，科学测算其波动强度和驱动因素是新常态下宏观经济政策设计的基础。本文首先建立条件马尔科夫模型，测算显示“7时代”的波动并未改变宏观经济的大稳健趋势，但出现从合理区间的上端向下端转移的增速换挡现象，大稳健与增速换挡是宏观经济运行新常态的两大典型事实。为进一步探究其驱动因素，本文建立刻画经济系统时变性的TVP-SV-VAR模型，实证结果表明：（1）大稳健态势得以延续，是结构冲击的刺激和传导机制双重渐变所致，分别表现为供给冲击和需求冲击的波动性下降、经济系统对于冲击传导显现日益明显的缓冲作用，因而经济自我稳定效应在“7时代”得到进一步的加强。（2）增速换挡是潜在增长率下降和外部负向需求冲击长期化二者叠加的结果。供给冲击主导的经济增长长期趋势进入下行通道是主要因素，这是始于2006年的渐变而非2012年以来的突变，2012年的加快改革已使降速放缓，但仍未实现托底；需求冲击主导的周期成分持续为负则是助推因素，微刺激政策效果逐渐显现但未足以转变冲击方向。新常态下的减速治理必须改革和调控双提速，加快结构调整、技术创新以及制度变革以平滑和扭转潜在增长率的下降趋势，迅速调整财政货币政策以对冲负向需求冲击常态化的影响。 |
| Abstract | China has entered the economic slowdown “7 era” since 2012. Using the conditional Markov model, we find that, the “7 era” doesn’t change the great moderation, but transfers from the upper to the lower end of the reasonable interval. Great moderation and slowdown are two important stylized facts in the new normal of macroeconomic operation. We establish a TVP-SV-VAR model to investigate to driving factors, and find that: (1) the continuation of the great moderation, is the result of the changes of the impulse and propagation mechanisms of structural shocks. The volatilities of supply shocks and demand shocks decline, and the buffer effect for the shock transmission in economic system is more and more obvious. Such economic self-stabilizing effects are strengthened in the "7 era". (2) The slowdown is the outcome of the decline of potential growth rate and negative external demand shock. The long-term trend of economic growth has led into the downstream channel since 2006, and the accelerated reforms in 2012 slowed down the rate of decline, but not yet realized underpinning. Continued negative cyclical components driven by demand shocks are boosting factors. Micro stimulus policy effected gradually but not yet changed the direction of shocks. For the governance of economic slowdown, the government must speed up structural adjustment, technological innovation and institution reform to smooth and even reverse the downward trend of potential growth rate, and also quickly adjust the fiscal and monetary policy to hedge the negative effect of demand shocks. |
| 文章编号 | WP884 |
| 登载时间 | 2015-06-12 |
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