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资本账户开放下汇率制度的选择
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TitleThe choice of exchange rate regimes in capital account opening  
作者崔红宇 王爱俭  
AuthorCui Hongyu and Wang Aijian  
作者单位天津财经大学 
OrganizationTianjin University of Finance & Economics 
作者Emailcui_hongyu@126.com 
中文关键词资本账户开放 汇率制度 利率规则 
Key WordsCapital account opening; Exchange rate regime; Interest rate rule 
内容提要汇率制度的选择一直是国际金融领域重点探讨的问题之一。本文通过构建新凯恩斯理论模型探讨了资本账户开放下汇率制度的选择。通过比较不同资本账户开放速度、不同汇率制度与不同货币政策规则下,产出、通胀率与汇率的波动情况,并进行福利分析,本文主要得到以下结论:(1)随着汇率制度从相对固定转化为浮动汇率制度,福利损失不断下降,且随着资本账户开放速度的提高福利损失下降的幅度降低;(2)任何汇率制度下,资本账户的开放都是有助于福利提高的,特别是在资本账户开放的初始阶段,福利会有显著地提高;(3)资本账户开放要循序渐进地进行,同时要与汇率制度的改革相协调才能实现本国的福利最优。本文的结论得到资本账户开放国家开放事实的支持。 
AbstractThe choice of exchange rate regimes is one of important questions of the international finance. The paper mainly discussed the relations of capital account opening and the choice of exchange rate regimes by composing New Keynes model. We compared output, rate of inflation and exchange rate fluctuations in different capital account opening velocities, different exchange rate regimes and different money policy rules, and analyzed welfare. The conclusions are as followings. The first one is that the welfare loss is falling off in pace with the exchange rate regime from relative fixed to float. And the welfare loss falls off more slowly during capital account opening velocity increasing. The second one is that the capital account opening improves welfare in any exchange rate regime. And the welfare can have significant improvement during the initial opening period. The final one is that the capital account opening should be simultaneous with exchange rate regime reformation, which would improve welfare. Finally, we provided cases to support our conclusions.  
文章编号WP888 
登载时间2015-06-12 
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