中国的投资数据有多可信？
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| Title | How reliable is China investment data?
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| 作者 | 朱天 张军 刘芳 |
| Author | Zhu Tian, Zhang Jun and Liu Fang |
| 作者单位 | 中欧国际工商学院；复旦大学 |
| Organization | China Europe International Business School; Fudan University |
| 作者Email | ztian@ceibs.edu；junzh_2000@fudan.edu.cn；12110680009@fudan.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 支出法GDP构成 资本形成 固定资产投资 最终消费 |
| Key Words | GDP by expenditure method; Capital formation; Investment in fixed assets; Final consumption |
| 内容提要 | 本文试图在前两位作者对中国家庭消费支出数据的研究基础上进一步考察中国的投资数据，并据此评估中国支出法GDP构成数据及其比例的可信度。我们的研究发现，支出法GDP中代表投资支出的资本形成总额虽然名义上是独立核算出来的，但最终公布的数字却与用官方公布的核算方法计算出来的结果大相径庭，基本上可以看成是按生产-收入法核算出来的GDP总额减去最终消费和净出口总额后的余项。之所以出现这样的情况，是因为全社会固定资产投资总额数据越来越高估中国的实际投资支出，以至于这一数据不可信赖，无法直接采纳。如果资本形成是支出法GDP中的余项，且支出法GDP以收入-生产法核算为准，那么，消费支出核算数据的任何低估必然转化为资本形成数据相应地高估，从而中国的投资占GDP的比重也就被高估。本文的结论是：中国支出法GDP构成中的投资和消费数据及其相应的比例关系存在很大的系统偏差，不宜作为经济分析、政策讨论和学术研究的依据；而广为流行的中国经济的消费过低、投资过高的判断恰恰就是建立在这些存在偏差的支出法GDP构成数据基础之上的。 |
| Abstract | Building upon the first two authors’ previous study on China’s consumption data, this paper further investigates the quality of China’s investment data, and assesses the reliability of the official statistics on the expenditure components of China’s GDP. We follow strictly the official method to estimate the annual gross capital formation expenditure from 2004 to 2012, and the resulting figures are significantly different from the official statistics. This implies that the “all society investment in fixed assets” data, which is the primary source in the estimation of gross capital formation expenditure, has grossly exaggerated the actual investments, and that official capital expenditure figures are not independently estimated as they ought to be. We conclude that the official capital formation figure is practically a residual item derived from subtracting the amount of estimated final consumption and net exports from the official GDP (based on the production cum income method) . As a result, the underestimation of China’s consumption expenditure has automatically been translated into the overestimation of its investment expenditure. Therefore, China’s official statistics of the individual expenditure components of GDP cannot be trusted as the basis for policy discussions and academic studies. The widely shared belief about China’s consumption being too low and investment being too high is based on just such distorted statistics. |
| 文章编号 | WP898 |
| 登载时间 | 2015-07-14 |
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