基于部分保险假说的居民风险分担能力实证研究
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| Title | Risk Sharing of Chinese Households: An Empirical Research Based on Partial Insurance Hypothesis
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| 作者 | 王稳 张运智 |
| Author | Wang Wen and Zhang Yunzhi |
| 作者单位 | 对外经济贸易大学 |
| Organization | University of International Business and Economics |
| 作者Email | wangw6966@vip.sina.com；zhangyunzhi1000@126.com |
| 中文关键词 | 居民风险分担能力 部分保险假说 中国健康与营养调查 |
| Key Words | Households’ Risk Sharing Ability; Partial Insurance Hypothesis; China Health and Nutrition Survey |
| 内容提要 | 居民风险分担能力是一国保险和社会保障体系完善程度、金融市场运行效率以及国民经济发展程度的重要衡量指标。目前我国居民面对风险事故时，个人支出所占的比率远高于发达国家以及国际组织推荐的标准，说明我国居民的风险分担能力较弱。本文基于部分保险假说，依据1991年至2011年的中国健康与营养调查（CHNS）数据，筛选具有代表性的年度数据（含1817个观测样本家庭），测算了居民的风险分担能力。实证结果表明，我国居民面对永久收入冲击与暂时性收入冲击时，分别有75%与52%的损失风险可以分担。但考虑到CHNS数据中家庭应对风险的时间较长，如果将应对期限从2到3年下降到1年，即使用期限较短的同类数据进行稳健性检验，那么风险分担能力会显著下降。因此，应当按照《国务院关于加快发展现代保险服务业的若干意见》所提出的“构筑保险民生保障网，完善多层次社会保障体系”，充分发挥商业保险在社会保障体系的重要作用，努力提升我国居民的风险分担能力。 |
| Abstract | The ability of risk sharing indicates the completeness of social security system, the efficiency of financial market, and the degree of economic development. Nowadays, when Chinese households face risk events, the rate of personal payment over total payment is way higher than the standards recommended by international organizations. This phenomenon indicates that households aren’t capable of sharing risks properly. Based on Partial Insurance Hypothesis, this paper empirically tests households’ risk sharing ability by using 1817 sample families filtered from China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) Database (1991 to 2011). Empirical results suggest that 75% permanent income shocks and 52% temporary income shocks are insured. In our research, households have longer time (2 or 3 years) to counter risks compared to other researches. For robustness check, estimated risk sharing of households is significantly weaker when using similar sample (UHS) in which households only have 1 year to counter risks. To improve the ability of risk sharing, government should insist on the promotion of diversified social security system proposed by “Opinions of the State Council on Accelerating the Development of Modern Insurance Industry”, and thus make commercial insurance carry more duties. |
| 文章编号 | WP915 |
| 登载时间 | 2015-08-18 |
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