珍贵的“乐观者”——模糊性决策框架下的最优劳动合约设计
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| Title | Precious Optimists——Optimal Contract under Ambiguity
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| 作者 | 姚东旻 王麒植 李军林 崔琳 |
| Author | Yao Dongmin, Wang Qizhi , Li Junlin and Cui Lin |
| 作者单位 | 中央财经大学；中国人民大学经济学院 |
| Organization | Central University of Finance and Economic; Renmin University of China |
| 作者Email | yaodongminn@163.com；wangqizhi90@126.com；junlin.lee@ruc.edu.cn；cuilinnku@126.com |
| 中文关键词 | 最优合约 NAC容度效用模型 Choquet期望效用 模糊性态度 |
| Key Words | Ambiguity; Optimal Contract; Neo-additive Capacity; Ambiguity Attitude |
| 内容提要 | 人类在决策时如果无法获知未来事件的发生概率，便称为人们面临模糊性（ambiguity）决策，此时Savage的主观期望效用模型将不再适用于刻画决策者的行为，而前沿的决策理论通过引入模糊性感知和模糊性态度对期望效用模型进行了修正。基于此，本文利用基于NAC（neo-additive capacity）容度效用模型研究了模糊性决策框架下雇佣合约，我们发现：（1）由于决策方式的不同，乐观的雇员更容易被激励，他们往往能够给雇佣者带来更高的“乐观溢价”；（2）忽略了不确定性，期望效用框架下的最优合约将会“失效”。本文也解释了为什么乐观主义会成为企业文化的重要部分；对创业公司中长期衰败的现象从内部人力资源动态变化的角度给出了相应解释。这些发现对理解企业的内部决策、行为，提供了一个新制度学派与行为经济学相互结合的新框架。 |
| Abstract | Under ambiguity, where probabilities are unknown, Savage’s model is not applicable for describing a decision maker’s behavior. Since no valid distribution can be obtained, ambiguity perception and ambiguity attitude are introduced to account for the decision maker’s choice. In this paper, we used the Choquet Expected Utility (CEU) model with neo-additive capacity to study the optimal contract in an employment relationship. We found that1) optimistic employees can bring more profit to the employer because they are more easily motivated and 2) any optimal contract may fail if ambiguity factors are neglected. Based on these findings, we explain why positive attitudes such as optimism are often praised in corporate cultures and provide a potential reason for why some start-ups have satisfying earnings in the beginning but then fail when they grow bigger. These findings provide a new framework to understand a firm's decision-making behavior from the aspects of new institutional economics and behavioral economics together. |
| 文章编号 | WP927 |
| 登载时间 | 2015-09-30 |
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