产业结构变动与经济周期波动——基于劳动力市场视角的分析与检验
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| Title | Industrial Structure Change and Business Cycle——Theoretical Model and Empirical Test based on Labor Market
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| 作者 | 赵旭杰 郭庆旺 |
| Author | Zhao Xujie and Guo Qingwang |
| 作者单位 | 对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院；中国人民大学中国财政金融政策研究中心 |
| Organization | University of International Business and Economics; Renmin University of China |
| 作者Email | zhaoxujie@uibe.edu.cn；guoqw@ruc.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 产业结构变动 经济周期波动 贝叶斯空间计量模型 |
| Key Words | Industrial Structure Change; Business Cycle; Bayesian Spatial Model |
| 内容提要 | 本文旨在从劳动力市场视角分析我国产业结构变动对经济周期波动的影响及其传导机理。首先，通过动态因子模型从各省份城镇单位人均工资变动和就业人数变动中提取全国经济周期波动，同时捕捉省份城镇单位人均工资变动、就业人数变动与全国经济周期波动的协动程度，揭示出产业结构变动对经济周期波动影响的两条传导路径。然后，运用贝叶斯空间计量模型研究三次产业以及第二产业分行业通过上述两条传导路径对经济周期波动的影响。研究结果显示，第一产业对经济周期波动影响较为模糊，第二、第三产业在两条传导路径上对经济周期波动具有显著的非对称加剧作用，而制造业是第二产业经济周期波动效应的主要来源。本文的研究结论对于我国当前如何在加快产业结构升级过程中缓解经济周期波动下行压力具有重要的政策含义。 |
| Abstract | This paper aims to explore the influence mechanisms of industrial structure change on business cycle from labor market perspective. Firstly, we use the dynamic factor model to extract the national business cycle from provincial labor income change and employment change in urban units, and simultaneously capture the co-movements of labor income change and employment change with business cycle respectively, which provides two types of mechanisms for industrial structure change to affect business cycle. Secondly, we study how the employment share changes of the three industries and sectors belong to the secondary industry in urban units affect the co-movement degree through two types of mechanisms by Bayesian spatial model. The results show that the primary industry has ambiguous influence on business cycle, the secondary and tertiary industry increase the macroeconomic fluctuation asymmetrically, and the negative influence of the secondary industry on business cycle is mainly due to the manufacturing sector. Our research has significant policy implication to mitigate downward pressure of business cycle in the process of accelerating the industrial structure upgrading. |
| 文章编号 | WP934 |
| 登载时间 | 2015-10-23 |
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