中国财政支出乘数与经济周期
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| Title | China’s Fiscal Multipliers and Business Cycle
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| 作者 | 陈诗一 陈登科 |
| Author | Chen shiyi and Chen Dengke |
| 作者单位 | 复旦大学 |
| Organization | Fudan University |
| 作者Email | shiyichen@fudan.edu.cn；13110680005@fudan.edu.cn； |
| 中文关键词 | 财政支出乘数 经济周期 MCMC方法 |
| Key Words | Fiscal Multipliers; Business Cycle; MCMC Method |
| 内容提要 | 财政支出乘数的估计对评价财政政策的效果、理解经济波动十分重要。本文在克服已有模型缺陷并采用较为准确月度数据的基础上，运用一个新的模型对我国财政支出乘数进行估计，首次定量考察了我国财政支出乘数与经济周期的关系，并更进一步地估算了研究样本区间每个时点的财政支出乘数。研究发现:（1）我国财政支出乘数平均为0.64，这一数值普遍低于发达国家；（2）我国财政支出乘数具有明显的逆周期特征，经济低迷时期财政支出乘数是经济繁荣期的2.3倍左右；（3）1998年与2008年两次金融危机期间，我国财政支出乘数明显高于其他时期，财政支出乘数在党代会召开前后波幅较大；（4）国有经济财政支出乘数显著低于整体经济；（5）动态财政支出乘数估计结果显示，财政刺激计划推出的时机至关重要，财政支出在经济冲击发生2-3个月后推出效果最好。 |
| Abstract | Overcoming the deficiency of current models and conveying more precise monthly output data, this paper employs a new model to investigate the fiscal multipliers of China and exploits the relationship between fiscal multipliers of China and business cycle for the first time. We further estimate the fiscal multipliers of different time points during the sample period. The results indicate that: (1) The average fiscal multiplier of China is 0.64, which is generally lower than developed countries; (2) China’s fiscal multipliers are strongly counter-cycle, the multipliers in recessions are 2.3 times as many as the ones in expansions; (3) During the 1998 and 2008 financial crisis, China’s fiscal multipliers are significantly higher than other periods, around the Party Congress year the fiscal multipliers are much more fluctuant; (4) The fiscal multipliers of state owned economy are less than those of the whole economy; (5) The timing of launching fiscal stimulus plan is extremely critical. |
| 文章编号 | WP940 |
| 登载时间 | 2015-10-27 |
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