Armington弹性、产品附加值与贸易福利改善——基于Armington一般均衡贸易框架
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| Title | Armington Elasticities, Added Value of Products and Trade Welfare Improvement
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| 作者 | 纪尹杰 罗来军 |
| Author | Ji Yinjie and Luo Laijun |
| 作者单位 | 复旦大学经济学院；中国人民大学 |
| Organization | School of Economics, Fudan University of China;School of Economics, Renmin University of China |
| 作者Email | 18810327706@163.com；laijunluo@163.com |
| 中文关键词 | 阿明顿一般均衡贸易模型 Armington弹性 附加值 贸易结构升级 |
| Key Words | Armington General equilibrium Trade Model; Armington Elasticity; Added Value; Trade Structure Upgrading |
| 内容提要 | 本文基于阿明顿一般均衡贸易框架，采用三种不同的估计方程得到了较前人更广泛全面的商品分类目录下16大类共计22组代表性商品的短期和长期Armington弹性。接着，笔者没有局限于国内学者研究福利的敏感性分析法，而是将Armington one-tier model加以延伸拓展，通过数值分析首次揭示了关税、贸易福利与贸易结构三者的关系。研究表明：1）附加值越低的产业，其产品弹性越大，产品的同质性更强；而附加值较高的产业，产品间的差异性更大，弹性较低。且随着时间的推进，附加值高和附加值低的产品对进口商品的替代作用会有更大的差距。2）在外国Armington替代弹性不变的情况下，相同进口关税对低附加值产品的贸易条件改善程度大于对高附加值产品贸易条件的改善程度。3）附加值越低的商品，其最优进口关税率越高。即一国倾向于对附加值较低的商品征收较高的税，对附加值较高的商品征收较低的税，来实现本国福利的最大化。 |
| Abstract | In this paper, based on the Armington framework of general equilibrium trade, the short-term and long-term Armington elasticities of a total of 22 groups of representative goods under 16 categories which covers a wider range of industries are obtained by using three different estimation equation. Not limited to the sensitivity analysis method used by the domestic scholars, the author uses the improved Armington one-tier model to find out the relationship among the tariff, trade structure and trade welfare by means of numerical analysis for the first time. Research shows that: i) The lower the added value of the industry, the bigger the product elasticity, and the more homogeneous the products, while the higher the value-added industries, the greater the differences between products, and the higher the elasticity. With time goes on, the substitute of high value-added and low value-added products for imported goods will have a greater gap. ii) Under the conditions of unchanged elasticity of Armington abroad, the effect of import tariffs on low value-added products in terms of trade improvement is greater than on low value-added products. iii) The lower value-added goods have the higher optimal import tariff rate. A country tends to impose higher taxes on lower value-added goods while imposing lower taxes on higher value-added goods to maximize their national benefits. |
| 文章编号 | WP948 |
| 登载时间 | 2015-11-03 |
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