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“中低教育陷阱”?——出口扩张、就业增长与个体教育决策
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Title“Middle- and Low-Education Trap”?——Export Expansion, Employment Growth and the Individual Decision of Education Investment  
作者张川川  
AuthorZhang Chuanchuan  
作者单位中央财经大学经济学院 
OrganizationSchool of Economics, Central University of Finance and Economics 
作者Emailccz.zhang@gmail.com. 
中文关键词出口扩张 就业增长 教育投资决策 
Key WordsExport Expansion; Employment Growth; Education Investment Decision 
内容提要中国在过去二十多年间的出口扩张推动了制造业和服务业就业增长。就业机会的增加提高了教育投资的机会成本,影响了个体教育决策。利用出口扩张引致的就业需求冲击和采用工具变量方法,本文从经验上分析了非农就业增长对个体教育投资决策的影响。研究发现,出口需求引致的就业增长导致适龄入学人口进入高中和大学学习的概率显著下降。非农就业人口占劳动年龄人口的比重增加1个百分点,导致16-18岁初中毕业生进入高中和19-21岁高中毕业生进入大学学习的概率分别下降0.17%和0.26%。给定其他条件不变,这意味着1990-2005年间由出口扩张引致的就业增长使高中入学率和大学入学率分别减少了5.4和8.6个百分点。就业增长对个体教育投资的负面影响还表现出显著的性别差异和城乡差异:相对于女性,青年男性进入大学和高中的概率出现了更大幅度的下降;农村青年进入大学和高中学习的概率都随着就业增长出现了显著下降,城镇青年进入大学学习的概率有显著下降,但进入高中学习的概率有显著上升。 
AbstractThe expansion of export during the past two decades has increased the employment in manufacturing and service sectors. Arrival of employment opportunities increases the opportunity costs of education and thus affects the individual decision of education investment. By exploiting the exogenous labor demand shock of export and using the instrumental variable approach, this paper empirically examines the effects of non-agricultural employment growth on education investment decision at the individual level. The paper finds that employment opportunities due to export significantly decrease the enrollment rates of high school and college. A one percentage increase in the share of non-agricultural workers of the total labor force decreases the high school enrollment among youth aged from 16-18 by 0.17%, and decreases the college enrollment among youth aged from 19-21 by 0.26%. Holding other factors constant, these estimates imply that the increase of non-agricultural employment due to export between 1990-2005 decreases the enrollment rates of high school and college by 5.4 and 8.6 percentage points, respectively. There are also substantial differences in the educational effects of employment growth by gender and by hukou status. Comparing to women, the decline of education investment is larger for men. While the enrolment rates of high school and college are both negatively affected by the employment growth for rural students, only the college enrollment is negatively affected by the employment growth for urban students. In contrast, arrival of jobs induced by export increases the high school enrollment of urban students. 
文章编号WP951 
登载时间2015-11-03 
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