汇率低估，金融发展与经济增长
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| Title | Undervaluation，Financial Development and Economic Growth
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| 作者 | 王雅琦 邹静娴 |
| Author | Wang Yaqi and Zou Jingxian |
| 作者单位 | 中央财经大学金融学院；北京大学国家发展研究院 |
| Organization | Central University of Finance and Economics, Peking University |
| 作者Email | yakisunny@126.com；zoujingxian@gmail.com |
| 中文关键词 | 汇率低估 金融发展 经济增长 |
| Key Words | Undervaluation； Financial Development； Economic Growth |
| 内容提要 | 本文从理论和实证两方面分析了当金融市场存在借贷约束时，汇率低估对经济增长的影响。基于两部门的小国开放模型，可以证明汇率低估能够作为对金融部门扭曲的一种纠正，通过同时提升可贸易部门的生产率和份额以促进经济增长，并且这一效果对借贷约束越紧的国家越明显。利用1980-2011年的跨国数据，我们对理论部分结论进行了检验，结果显示对于金融发展程度低于样本水平四分之一的国家，实际汇率低估程度每增加50%，能平均提升经济增长率0.15个百分点，并且这一作用更多是通过可贸易部门内的生产率提升实现的。同时给定汇率低估幅度为50%，随着金融发展程度每下降10%，其对经济增长的促进效果将上升0.075个百分点。 |
| Abstract | This paper analyzes the effect of exchange rate undervaluation on economic growth in the presence of borrowing constraint. Based on a two-sector small open economy model, it’s shown that undervaluation can promote economic growth by partly correcting the distortion in financial market, through the channels of increasing the within-sector productivity and relative share of tradable sector, meanwhile such effect gets magnified with tighter borrowing constraint. We empirically test the theoretical conclusions using cross-country data from 1980-2011. On average, for countries whose financial development falling below 25% of the sample, a 50% undervaluation can boost economic growth rate by 0.15 percentage points, mainly through the productivity increase in the tradable sector. Moreover, such effect gets an extra 0.075 percentage points increase with a 10% drop in financial development. |
| 文章编号 | WP977 |
| 登载时间 | 2015-12-09 |
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