“一带一路”区域合作的贸易效应分析——基于一个具有微观基础的全局引力模型
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| Title | Trade effect analysis of the ‘one belt and one road’ Economic Zone Construction
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| 作者 | 王珏 冯宗宪 |
| Author | Wang Jue and Feng Zongxian |
| 作者单位 | 西安交通大学经济与金融学院 |
| Organization | Xi’an Jiaotong University |
| 作者Email | 西安交通大学经济与金融学院 |
| 中文关键词 | “一带一路”建设 贸易效应 贸易成本 全局引力模型 |
| Key Words | ‘One Belt and One Road’ Construction; Trade Effect; Trade Cost; Global Gravity Model |
| 内容提要 | 本文对我国开展“一带一路”区域合作产生的贸易效应进行了模型分析与数值模拟。在新经济地理学研究范式下，通过求解一般均衡，本文得出一个包含多个区域交互影响的全局引力模型，并基于1993-2014“一带一路”区域的贸易数据和两种距离测定方法，对该模型进行了数值模拟。研究发现，全局引力模型很好的解释了“一带一路”区域的贸易变化，两个子区域间的贸易均会受到其他区域“引力”的影响。当我国进行区域合作导致与某个子区域贸易成本减少时，对其他子区域会产生程度不同的贸易转移效应，因此在进行“一带一路”区域合作时需要注意这种联动影响。 |
| Abstract | This paper analyzed the trade effects of China’s ‘one belt and one road’ regional cooperation by theoretical model analysis and numerical simulation. Based on the New Economic Geography research paradigm, we draw a global gravity model which contained the interaction among all regions by solving the general equilibrium. And we simulated the model by using the 1993-2014 trade data of ‘one belt and one road’ region and two distance measuring methods. The results shown that the trade of ‘one belt and one road’ region can be explained by global gravity model, the trades between any two sub-regions will be affected by other regions’ ‘gravity’. Accompany with the regional cooperation process, when the trade costs between China and one sub-region reduces, the different trade diversion effects will take place on other sub-regions. Thus, these impacts of regional linkage should be noted during the ‘one belt and one road’ regional cooperation. |
| 文章编号 | WP994 |
| 登载时间 | 2015-12-18 |
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