能源禀赋与实际汇率
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| Title | Energy Endowment and Real exchange Rate
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| 作者 | 才国伟 曹昱葭 |
| Author | Cai Guowei and Cao Yujia |
| 作者单位 | 中山大学岭南学院 |
| Organization | Lingnan College, Sun Yat-sen University |
| 作者Email | zsucai@126.com；caiguow@mail.sysu.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 能源禀赋 实际汇率 开放经济模型 巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应 |
| Key Words | Energy Endowment; Real Exchange Rate; Open Economy Model; Balassa-Samuelson Effect |
| 内容提要 | 在全球化进程中，能源问题是一直是各国政治、经济关注的焦点。现有研究多关注能源价格与实际汇率的关系，而忽视了国家能源禀赋本身对实际汇率的影响。本文构建了包含能源禀赋因素的两国三部门开放经济模型，阐释了能源禀赋影响实际汇率的作用机制。在实证部分，对1991-2011年68个国家的数据进行了面板回归分析，结果显示能源禀赋确实会对实际汇率产生显著影响。一国能源禀赋越充足，其本币实际汇率越高；反之，则越低。此外，本文还验证了有关实际汇率的巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应假说。当前，中国能源进口依赖度不断上升，人民币应该适当贬值。 |
| Abstract | In the process of globalization, the energy issue is always the focus of national political and economic concerns. Existing studies pay more attention to the relationship between energy prices and the real exchange rate, while ignoring the effect of a country's energy endowment itself on the real exchange rate. By constructing a two-country and three-section model with energy endowment in open economy, this paper explains the mechanism of how energy endowments affect the real exchange rate. In the empirical tests, the annual data of 1991-2011 period on 68 countries are used to conduct the panel regression analysis. The results show that energy endowment indeed has a significant impact on the real exchange rate. The more abundant one country’s energy endowment is, the higher the real exchange rate of its currency is; otherwise, the lower. In addition, we verify the Balassa-Samuelson effect hypothesis. Recently, the energy dependence on imports is growing more and more heavily in China, so the RMB should depreciate appropriately. |
| 文章编号 | WP1012 |
| 登载时间 | 2016-01-08 |
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