延迟退休会提高青壮年的失业率吗——基于劳动力市场匹配模型的模拟研究
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| Title | Unemployment and Delaying Retirement in A Model Based on DMP Theory
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| 作者 | 姚东旻 刘子先 王佑文 张洲弛 |
| Author | Yao Dongmin,Liu Zixian,Wang Youwen and Zhang Zhouchi |
| 作者单位 | 中央财经大学 |
| Organization | School of National Fiscal Development of Central University of Finance and Economics; Chinese Academy of Finance and Developemnt of Central University of Finance and Economics |
| 作者Email | yaodongminn@163.com；lzx678@sina.cn；2944393755@qq.com；zzc98474@163.com |
| 中文关键词 | 失业率 延迟退休 劳动力市场匹配模型（DMP模型） 产业结构 |
| Key Words | DMP Model; Delaying Retirement; Unemployment Rate |
| 内容提要 | 本文将产业结构引入DMP模型，构建当劳动者存在失业、退休、更换工作等情况下，青壮年和老年劳动者在两部类间的竞争就业模型，研究产业结构升级背景下延迟退休对劳动者工资及失业率的影响。模拟研究发现，中国当前情景下，延迟退休可以减轻人口老龄化对产业结构升级的阻碍，同时使得青壮年劳动者失业率下降，并且老龄化程度越深，延迟退休对失业率的长期降低作用越明显，并且提高了劳动者整体工资水平，对青壮年就业不存在“挤出”效应。如果政府在推出延迟退休政策同时，增加对技术创新、产业结构升级的扶持力度，则延迟退休政策可以更加平稳地推行，延迟退休与产业结构升级作为一对“政策组合”，是老龄化背景下中国政府的“必要”之举。 |
| Abstract | This paper presents a model where young and old workers compete for two types of jobs in the presence of retirement opportunity and job change. This model is based on the DMP model with some additional assumptions----two types of firms and possibility of changing jobs. We adopt the simulation method to see the impact of delaying retirement on the unemployment rate of youngsters and try to find the logic why such changes would happen. Within this framework, we show that the delaying retirement (such as an increase of the retirement age) would cause an increase of the unemployment rate of youngsters when we assume that the percentage of high technology firms is exogenous, while delaying retirement would cause a decrease of the unemployment rate of youngsters when percentage of the high technology firms is endogenous. And the wages of all workers would increase along with the delaying retirement and the adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure. In addition, delaying retirement would give an impetus to the adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure. Indeed, the number of vacancies posted by ?rms is in?uenced by the probability that an old worker is going into retirement and the percentage of high technology firms. |
| 文章编号 | WP1014 |
| 登载时间 | 2016-01-08 |
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