全球虚拟经济与实体经济有多大程度的背离？——基于DSGE乘数效应的测算
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| Title | How Much is the Deviation between Fictitious Economy and Real Economy in the World?
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| 作者 | 苏治 方彤 徐淑丹 |
| Author | Su Zhi,Fang Tong and Xu Shudan |
| 作者单位 | 中央财经大学 |
| Organization | Central University of Finance and Economics |
| 作者Email | suzhi1218@163.com ; |
| 中文关键词 | 虚拟经济 实体经济 DSGE模型 乘数效应 金融加速器 |
| Key Words | Fictitious economy; Real economy; DSGE model; Multiplier effect; Financial accelerator |
| 内容提要 | 通过构建包含“金融加速器”和合约机制的动态随机一般均衡模型（DSGE），本文提出一种测算虚拟经济与实体经济背离程度的新方法。该方法依据脉冲响应计算各国产出和投资乘数，提出反映经济结构和资源禀赋的虚拟经济与实体经济背离指标，并进行国际比较。研究发现：短期内背离程度与国家发展水平无关，宽松货币政策冲击下虚拟经济与实体经济背离具有普遍性；长期内发达国家背离程度低于发展中国家，虚拟经济与实体经济传导摩擦较小互动弹性较大，发展中国家背离程度相对较高，虚拟经济与实体经济传导摩擦较大互动粘性较高；由于实体经济增速较快以及金融监管约束较多，中国虚拟经济与实体经济背离程度较低，虚拟经济发展仍有较大潜力。发达国家应防止虚拟经济与实体经济短期严重背离；发展中国家应权衡监管和自由发展，改善信贷约束、校正资本价格和配置扭曲，推进金融体系改革，减小虚拟经济与实体经济传导摩擦，提高两者互动弹性，实现虚拟经济与实体经济契合发展。 |
| Abstract | Through building up DSGE model with financial accelerator and contract term, this paper brings out a new method for measuring deviations between fictitious economy and real economy. This method calculates output and investment multiplier based on IRFs and brings about deviation index which reflects differences in economic structure and resources statues. We find that short-term deviation is not related to the development of the countries, the deviations are common among all the countries under monetary policy. In long-term, deviations in developed countries are lower than developing countries, which means that the two kind of economies have smaller fictions and higher flexibilities, deviations in developing countries are higher, the two kind of economies have bigger fictions and lower flexibilities. Due to the faster growth and the limitations on fictitious economy, China has the lowest deviation, and it has great potential. The developed countries should prevent serious deviations; the developing countries should balance the regulations and free development, improve the restrictions in credit, fix the twist in price and capital, and push the financial reform forward, decrease the transmission fictions and increase the flexibilities between fictitious economy and real economy, realize the coordination between them. |
| 文章编号 | WP1033 |
| 登载时间 | 2016-03-11 |
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