我国货币政策目标的动态切换特征：多目标如何平衡？
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| Title | The Dynamic Switch of Monetary Policy Targets in China:The Balance amongst Multiple Targets
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| 作者 | 邓伟 唐齐鸣 |
| Author | Deng Wei and Tang Qiming |
| 作者单位 | Zhongnan University of Economics and Law; Huazhong University of Science and Technology |
| Organization | 中南财经政法大学会计学院；华中科技大学经济学院 |
| 作者Email | dengweihust@gmail.com；tqm@hust.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 货币政策 多目标综合平衡 时变特征 动态模型选择 |
| Key Words | Monetary Policy; Multiple Targets and Overall Balance; Time-varying Characteristics; Dynamic Model Selecting |
| 内容提要 | 与许多实施通胀目标制的国家不同，我国采取多目标综合平衡的货币政策目标，然而少有研究对我国货币政策多目标间的动态切换特征进行考察。本文纳入8个常用的货币政策目标变量，从物价稳定、经济增长以及金融稳定等多个维度，利用贝叶斯动态模型平均（选择）方法对我国货币政策多目标的综合平衡特征进行考察。研究结论可以概括为：（1）不同时期根据经济形势的变化，我国货币政策目标存在多种形式的组合，目标之间的动态切换体现了政策的灵活性和综合平衡性，且当发生较大的金融冲击时对经济增长和汇率的关注表现得尤为明显；（2）同类货币政策目标变量的重要性存在较大的差异，总体而言，物价稳定的目标中CPI优于PPI指标，经济增长的目标中固定资产投资完成额优于工业企业增加值，国际收支平衡的目标中出口额增长率优于进口额增长率，金融稳定的目标中人民币兑美元汇率优于上证综合指数；（3）利率对不同货币政策目标的调节力度存在较大的变化性，且对物价稳定和经济增长目标的调节最具灵活性。 |
| Abstract | Different from inflation targeting implemented in many countries, China adopts a multiple-target and overall balance monetary policy framework. However, rare research has been conducted on the switch amongst multiple monetary policy targets. This paper employs 8 popular indicators from several targets dimensions including price stability, economic growth and financial stability and so on to study the overall balancing by using Bayesian model averaging and selecting. Main findings can be summarized as (1) Various monetary policy targets combinations are found and they switch as economic condition changes, reflecting the policy flexibility and an overall balance amongst multiple targets, and in particularly, economic growth and financial stability are most observed in the period of serious financial crises; (2) It shows differences between targets indicators of the same dimension. Generally speaking, CPI excels PPI for price stability, fixed assets investment surpasses industrial value added for economic growth, export surpasses import for balance of international payments, and the exchange rate of USD/RMB surpasses Shanghai Composite Index for financial stability; (3) Interest rate responds differently to various targets, and it becomes most active and flexible in terms of price stability and economic growth. |
| 文章编号 | WP1038 |
| 登载时间 | 2016-03-18 |
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