可置信政策、汇率制度与货币危机——来自新兴市场与发展中国家的经验证据 阅读全文
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Title | Credibility of Policies, Exchange-rate Regime and Currency Crises
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作者 | 王道平 范小云 陈雷 |
Author | Wang Daoping, Fan Xiaoyun and Chen Lei |
作者单位 | 南开大学金融学院 |
Organization | Nankai University; |
作者Email | wangdaoping@nankai.edu.cn;fanxiaoyun@vip.sina.com;nkchenlei@yeah.net |
中文关键词 | 汇率制度;货币危机;资本账户开放;预期 |
Key Words | Exchange-rate Regime; Currency Crises; Capital Control; Expectation |
内容提要 | 本文基于新兴市场与发展中国家1970~2010年的跨国面板经验数据,考察了一国政府对外宣布的汇率制度、汇率弹性以及该国汇率政策的可置信性对于一国应对货币危机发生的影响。研究发现,对于新兴市场与发展中国家而言,该国政府对外宣布的汇率制度弹性越大、容忍本国汇率波幅变动的越大,其发生货币危机的几率反而将更大;此外,若一国政府的汇率政策的可置信较低,将更容易引发国际投机资本对本国汇率进行投机冲击,增加发生货币危机几率。新兴市场与发展中国家在应对国际投机冲击时,试图通过扩大汇率弹性消除投机冲击的政策,事实上反而将增加货币危机发生几率;正确的预期引导、提高政府维护汇率稳定政策的可置信性,则将有助于消除市场恐慌、减少外汇投机冲击、防范货币危机发生。 |
Abstract | Based on a panel of annual data for the emerging markets and developing countries from 1970 through 2010, this paper examines the impact of different exchange rate regimes announcements and the credibility of government’s exchange rate policies on the probability of currency crises. The results shows that, for emerging markets and developing countries, the greater flexibility of the exchange rate regimes announced by the authorities and the greater tolerance of exchange rate volatility, the probability of the occurrence of currency crisis will be greater; in addition, if the government’s exchange rate policies lack credibility, it is easy to trigger speculative attack and increase the incidence of currency crisis. For emerging markets and developing countries, correct expectation guiding and confidence improving in the government’s policy to maintain a stable exchange rate will be helpful to eliminate the panic of exchange rate collapse, reduce speculative attack, and prevent the occurrence of currency crises. |
文章编号 | WP1079 |
登载时间 | 2016-07-15 |
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