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转融券制度、卖空约束与股价变动
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TitleQualified Securities for Short-sale Refinancing, Short-sale Constraints and Stock Prices  
作者苏冬蔚 倪博  
AuthorSu Dongwei and Ni Bo  
作者单位暨南大学经济学院 
OrganizationCollege of Economics, Jinan University 
作者Emaildongweisu@gmail.com; 
中文关键词转融券制度 卖空约束 卖空交易 股价变动 市场稳定性 
Key WordsQualified Securities for Short-sale Refinancing; Short-sale constraints; Short sale; Stock price fluctuations; Market stability 
内容提要本文以我国资本市场独特的转融券制度为外生变量构造自然实验,运用双重差分计量方法研究卖空资产供给增加对收益率变动、股价高估程度和收益率风险特征非对称性的影响,发现卖空约束减少后,股价波动性和极端负收益的发生频率均上升;转融券股的日均异常收益和累计异常收益均显著低于非转融券股;投资者信念的异质性程度越高,转融券股累计异常收益低于非转融券股的幅度就越大;市场下跌时转融券股的β系数上升而上涨时β系数则下降。结果表明,卖空交易为一把“双刃剑”,既可抑制资产价格泡沫、减小市场风险的非对称性、完善价格发现功能并增强市场稳定性,也可扩大股价波幅、加剧市场暴跌并诱发市场危机,因此监管部门只有不断完善卖空机制等交易制度并严格执法,才能为推动“大众创业、万众创新”的国家战略奠定坚实的资本市场基础。 
AbstractQualified Securities for Short-sale Refinancing (QSSR) is a unique trading mechanism that affects the supply of securities available for short sales in Chinese capital markets. Using difference-in-difference methodology, we investigate whether and to what extent exogenous changes in the QSSR list lead to increases in short sale activities which in turn affect return volatilities, stock overvaluation, and asymmetric characteristics of return distribution. We find that as securities are added to the QSSR list, the volatility of returns and the frequency of extreme negative returns increase. In addition, QSSR stocks experience significantly negative abnormal return (AR) and cumulative abnormal return (CAR) than non-QSSR stocks, and the differences in both AR and CAR are positively related to investor heterogeneity. Moreover, the market beta for QSSR stocks increases in bear market while it declines in bull market. Our results indicate that the effect of short sales on share prices is mixed. On one hand, short sales reduce asset bubbles and asymmetric risk characteristics of asset returns, thus improving price discovery and promoting market stability. On the other hand, short sales lead to higher return volatility and increase the risk of market crashes. Therefore, securities regulatory authority has to continue to improve short sale and other trading mechanisms, and strictly enforce the law, so as to build a solid foundation in capital markets for attaining the national strategy of “mass entrepreneurship and innovation”. 
文章编号WP1086 
登载时间2016-08-02 
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