货币圈、国际铸币税与汇率弹性——人民币国际化的理论逻辑与实证检验
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| Title | Currency Circle, International Seigniorage and Exchange Rate Elasticity
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| 作者 | 徐涛 王文浩 杨为志 |
| Author | Xu Tao, Wang Wenhao and Yang Weizhi |
| 作者单位 | 山东大学经济学院；中国人民银行 |
| Organization | Shandong University; The People’s Bank of China |
| 作者Email | taoxusd@sdu.edu.cn；rommelwenhao@163.com；oucywz@163.com |
| 中文关键词 | 国际铸币税 货币圈 汇率弹性 人民币国际化 |
| Key Words | International Seigniorage; Currency Circle; Exchange Rate Elasticity; RMB Internationalization |
| 内容提要 | 货币国际化的一个重要收益是货币主权国家可以获得国际铸币税。货币国际化与国际铸币税获得间的内在机制是什么？与汇率波动存在怎样的关系？本文提出“货币圈”思想作为货币国际化的理论逻辑基础，并进一步以两国模型分析在比较优势条件下国际铸币税获得国和支付国的自然分化过程，然后拓展Fisher方程式，加入汇率变量推导出国际铸币税与汇率弹性的关系，再通过对7种主要的国际储备货币从1999年到2015年季度数据进行实证研究，验证理论预测。主要结论是：（1）基于资本和劳动力上的比较优势不同，国家间自然分化形成铸币税获得国和支付国，技术进步可能改变双方的状态，但通过汇率变动可以削弱技术进步对铸币税的影响；（2）对于国际铸币税的获得国，直接标价法下的汇率对流入的外国货币弹性越小，或者间接标价法下的汇率对流出的本国货币的弹性越大，越有利于其获得铸币税；（3）国际铸币税是人民币国际化的重要收益，但要警惕铸币税逆转的风险。 |
| Abstract | One significant benefit from currency internationalization is that the currency issuing country could obtain international seigniorage. What is the internal mechanism between currency internationalization and international seigniorage obtainment, and what is the relationship between this mechanism and exchange rate fluctuation? This paper proposes the thought of “Currency Circle” as the theoretical basis, and illustrates the natural process of differentiation between the obtainment countries and the payment countries on international seigniorage under the assumption of comparative advantage. Considering the impact of exchange rate, this paper demonstrates the connection between international seigniorage and exchange rate elasticity by expanding Fisher Equation. The empirical analysis on the quarterly data from 1999 to 2015 of 7 dominated international currencies support our theoretical prediction. Our main conclusions are: 1) The differences in comparative advantages contribute to the natural differentiation process of the obtainment countries and the payment countries in international seigniorage. Technical progress may alter their status, but the variation of exchange rate could weaken this alteration. 2) For those obtainment countries, the smaller of their exchange rate elasticity under direct quotation on inward foreign capital is, or the larger of their exchange rate elasticity under indirect quotation on outward domestic capital is, the easier they could obtain the seigniorage. 3) The international seigniorate is one of the significant benefit in RMB internationalization, but we should maintain keen vigilance on the risk of seigniorage reversion. |
| 文章编号 | WP1100 |
| 登载时间 | 2016-08-16 |
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