通货膨胀的产业结构变迁效应与社会福利损失
阅读全文
下载全文 |
| Title | Structure Change Effect and Welfare Cost of Inflation
|
| 作者 | 严成樑 |
| Author | Yan Chengliang |
| 作者单位 | 中央财经大学经济学院 |
| Organization | Central University of Finance and Economics |
| 作者Email | yanchengliang@gsm.pku.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 通货膨胀 社会福利损失 产业结构变迁 |
| Key Words | Inflation; Welfare Cost; Structure Change |
| 内容提要 | 本文在一个产业结构变迁框架下按照货币优先（CIA）方式引入货币政策，考察了通货膨胀作用于产业结构变迁的传导机制，并估算了通货膨胀的社会福利损失。研究发现，假设消费受CIA约束时，非位似偏好是通货膨胀影响产业结构变迁的重要原因；假设消费和投资同时受CIA约束时，非位似偏好和资本深化都是通货膨胀影响产业结构变迁的原因。通货膨胀对农业部门和非农业部门劳动供给的影响差别较大，通货膨胀抑制了产业结构变迁，通货膨胀率越高，农业部门的劳动力份额越高。量化分析的结果表明，取消通货膨胀税带来的社会福利改善相当于增加1.43%~3.73%的消费；通货膨胀率在基准上增加10%，带来的社会福利损失相当于减少1.86%~4.60%的消费。本文认为，以往的文献忽视了通货膨胀对产业结构变迁的抑制效应，从而低估了通货膨胀的社会福利损失。 |
| Abstract | This paper introduces monetary policy in a structure change model through the cash in advance constraint and we explore the effect of inflation on structural change, as well as estimate the welfare cost of inflation. It is found that when consumption is constrained by the CIA condition, non-homothetic preference is the only channel, through which monetary policy can affect structure change, and when both consumption and investment are constrained by the CIA condition, non-homothetic preferences and capital deepening are channels through which inflation can affect structure change. Inflation depresses the process of structure change, the higher the inflation rate, the lower labor shares in the agricultural sector. Quantitative analysis shows that the welfare cost of inflation is moderate. When the inflation rate rises by 10 percent, the welfare cost is equivalent to reduce consumption by 1.7%-3.14%。We argue that the previous literature neglects the impact of inflation on structure change, which underestimates the welfare cost of inflation. |
| 文章编号 | WP1097 |
| 登载时间 | 2016-08-15 |
|