工作论文
当前位置:首页 > 工作论文
结构调整与中国经济增长的未来
阅读全文         下载全文
TitleA Forecast of China’s Economic Growth: 2020 and 2030  
作者王小鲁  
AuthorWang Xiaolu  
作者单位中国改革基金会国民经济研究所 
OrganizationNational Economic Research Institute,China Reform Foundation 
作者Emailwangxiaolu@neri.org.cn 
中文关键词经济增长,结构调整,体制改革,投资,消费 
Key Wordseconomic growth, structure rebalance, reform, investment, consumption.  
内容提要中国经济增长近年步入下行通道,增长率已跌破7%。为分析下行原因和未来趋势,作者建立了一个增长模型,从供给侧定量分析生产要素贡献和体制、结构等因素的影响,同时结合需求侧分析,对未来增长进行预测。分析发现经济疲软直接表现为全要素生产率下降;内在原因是外需驱动向内需驱动转换不顺利,过度储蓄和过度投资导致结构失衡和内需疲软;行政成本上升和对市场干预影响效率;杠杆率不断上升导致金融效率下降。这些都与体制与政策因素密切相关。未来增长面临不确定性,如能全力推进改革和结构调整,中国经济可在调整期后恢复增长动能,在2030年前进入高收入国家行列;否则可能持续疲软,还有引发金融危机、导致长期萧条的危险。 
AbstractChina entered a diminishing growth path in recent years. How will the economy grow in the future? To answer this question, the author build a growth model to measure the contributing factors, inclusing structural and institutionsl elements, from the supply side, and, combined with demand-side analysis, forecasted future economic growth till 2030.It is found that weakness of growth is a direct reasult of declining TFP, and indirectly a reasult of difficulties in transfering from external-demand-driving growth to internal-demand-driving growth, oversaving and overinvestment, increasing administrative cost, and inceasing leverage rate. All these relate with institutional defects.The future growth is uncertain. With accelerating institutional reform and structure rebalance, China can reinstall growth impetus, and become a high-income country before 2030. Otherwise the weakness will be likely to continue, and, without macoreconomic policy adjustment, there will be a high risk of financial crisis. 
文章编号WP1104 
登载时间2016-08-30 
  • 主管单位:中国社会科学院     主办单位:中国社会科学院经济研究所
  • 经济研究杂志社版权所有 未经允许 不得转载     京ICP备10211437号
  • 本网所登载文章仅代表作者观点 不代表本网观点或意见 常年法律顾问:陆康(重光律师事务所)
  • 国际标准刊号 ISSN 0577-9154      国内统一刊号 CN11-1081/F       国内邮发代号 2-251        国外代号 M16
  • 地址:北京市西城区阜外月坛北小街2号   100836
  • 电话/传真:010-68034153
  • 本刊微信公众号:erj_weixin