递增阶梯定价政策评价与优化设计——基于充分统计量方法
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| Title | Policy Evaluation and Optimal Design of Increasing Block Pricing：Sufficient Statistics Approach
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| 作者 | 刘自敏 杨丹 冯永晟 |
| Author | Liu Zimin, Yang Dan and Feng Yongsheng |
| 作者单位 | 西南大学经济管理学院；中国社会科学院财经战略研究院 |
| Organization | College of Economics and Management, Southwest University; b: National Academy of Economic Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Science |
| 作者Email | ziminliu@126.com；zncdyd@163.com；fengysh@cass.org.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 递增阶梯定价 充分统计量 政策评估 优化设计 半结构模型 |
| Key Words | Increasing Block Pricing; Sufficient Statistics; Policy Evaluation; Optimal Design; Semi-Structural Model |
| 内容提要 | 对阶梯定价进行政策评价与优化设计是规制机构和学术界急需解决的一个重要问题。本文通过求解阶梯定价下福利损失与再分配效应的充分统计量，构建评估与优化阶梯定价的半结构式充分统计量模型。利用从国家电网随机抽取的2003~2011年杭州市5000户居民的月度电量消费数据，评估样本期内实施与调整阶梯定价的政策效果；在此基础上对最优阶梯定价机制进行优化设计，进一步评价了杭州市2012年最新阶梯定价调整政策。研究发现：（1）2004与2006年杭州市实施与调整阶梯定价的福利损失分配效应转化率由69.52%上升到73.30%，阶梯定价再分配的边际福利损失由0.44元下降到0.36元，与初次分配的税收边际福利损失相当，阶梯定价的有效期为2~3年，说明实施阶梯定价是有效的，且其调整方向正确；（2）分时阶梯定价分配效应转化率比纯阶梯定价低，嵌入分时定价的阶梯定价不能有效的实现阶梯定价目标，政府应谨慎使用分时与阶梯混合的定价方式；（3）与最优阶梯定价机制相比，2012年的最新阶梯定价调整方向正确，但第一阶梯长度扩展过多、第二阶梯扩展不足，而阶梯加价太小；（4）较之结构与缩减式模型，充分统计量方法极大节约数据信息量并能进行福利分析，可以广泛应用到政府公用事业的政策评估中。本文的研究为可靠评估与优化我国各类政府公用事业开拓了一条新思路。 |
| Abstract | It is an important issue for both regulatory agencies and academia to make policy evaluation and optimal design on the increasing block pricing. This paper made a semi-structural model of sufficient statistics, which could evaluate and optimize the increasing block pricing, through solving the sufficient statistics of welfare loss and redistribution effect of the increasing block pricing. Based on the 5000 Hangzhou residents of the monthly electricity consumption data selected randomly from the State Grid from 2003 to 2011, we first evaluated the policy effect of implementation and adjustment of increasing block pricing during the sample period; then made optimal designs on the pricing mechanism to further assess the latest price adjustment policy of Hangzhou, 2012. The results showed that: （1） the conversion rate of welfare loss allocation effect of the implementation and adjustment of block pricing, made by Hangzhou in 2004 and 2006, raised from 69.52% to 73.30%, and the marginal welfare loss of block pricing reduced from 0.44 yuan to 0.36 yuan, equal to the marginal welfare loss of tax compared with initial distribution, indicating the efficiency of the redistribution was improved by introducing block pricing; （2） the conversion rate of distribution effect of the time-of-use block pricing is lower than the pure block pricing, while the time-of-use block pricing can`t effectively achieve the objective of block pricing. Government should use time-of-use block pricing very carefully; （3） it was the right direction for the latest block pricing in 2012 compared with optimal block pricing mechanism, but too much length expansion in the first block and too little length expansion and price increase in the second block; （4） as the analysis process suggest, sufficient statistics method greatly saves the amount of data information and can carry out welfare analysis compared with the structure and reduced model. It can widely apply to the policy evaluation of the government public utilities. This paper`s research has opened up a new way for the reliability assessment and optimization of the public utilities. |
| 文章编号 | WP1116 |
| 登载时间 | 2016-09-27 |
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