重估户口改变对流动人口家庭消费的影响——来自微观跟踪数据的证据
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| Title | Re-examing the effect of hukou change on migration household consumption
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| 作者 | 孙文凯 王乙杰 |
| Author | Sun Wenkai and Wang Yijie |
| 作者单位 | 中国人民大学经济学院 |
| Organization | Renmin University of China |
| 作者Email | sunwk@ruc.edu.cn；wangyijie@ruc.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 户籍制度 流动人口 家庭消费 双重稳健模型 |
| Key Words | Hukou system, migration population, household consumption, double robust model |
| 内容提要 | 基于CFPS（2010、2012）两年的追踪数据，本文通过比较两年中由农村户口变为城市户口的流动人口和一直为农村户口的流动人口分析了户口改变对流动人口家庭消费行为的影响。为了克服个体自选择问题和遗漏变量偏误问题，本文采用倾向得分匹配与双重差分相结合的方法来构造反事实，在拟实验的环境下估计户口改变的影响。发现相比于没有获得城市户口的流动人口，户口改变的流动人口家庭总消费支出没有显著变化，家庭消费率显著降低，家庭收入增长导致了家庭消费率的降低。分项消费支出不同方向的变动导致了总消费支出没有显著变化。我们认为户口改变的短期消费效应不明显可能是由于个体消费存在惯性。假定长期中，流动人口完全市民化后仿照城镇居民的习惯进行消费，发现家庭消费支出提高额度达到14.8%。 |
| Abstract | Based on the Chinese Family Panel Studies (CFPS) two-year-panel data, this paper compares migrants who get urban hukou with migrants who remain rural hukou during two years to estimate the effect of hukou change on migration household consumption. In order to overcome self-selection and omitted variable problem, this paper adopts an approach which combines the propensity score matching method with the difference-difference method. Therefore the conclusion comes out under a quasi experimental environment. We find that compared to migrants who`s hukou status keep unchanged, the total family consumption expenditure of migrants who get urban hukou do not change significantly, while the consumption rate significantly decreased. We also test family consumption expenditure by item and find that only food expenditure and traffic communication expenditure show an increase. As to household consumption rate, the reduction is mainly due to increase of household income. The reason why short-term effect of hukou change is not significant is probably the individual consumption habit. We also estimate the long-term effect of hukou change to get the overall understanding. If we assume the migration populations completely copy the urban residents’ consumption mode in the long period, the household consumption expenditure will eventually increase about 14.8%. |
| 文章编号 | WP1131 |
| 登载时间 | 2016-11-22 |
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