灾难冲击与我国最优财政货币政策选择
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| Title | Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policies in the Face of Disasters in China
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| 作者 | 赵向琴 袁静 陈国进 |
| Author | Zhao Xiangqin, Yuan Jing and Chen Guojin |
| 作者单位 | 厦门大学 |
| Organization | Xiamen University |
| 作者Email | xqzhao@xmu.edu.cn;xoy1977@126.com;gjchenxmu@gmail.com |
| 中文关键词 | 灾难冲击 政府生产性支出 规则行事 相机抉择 |
| Key Words | Rare Disaster Shock; Government Productive Spending; Optimal Fiscal Policy; Optimal Monetary Policy |
| 内容提要 | 本文通过引入政府生产性支出拓展了包含灾难冲击的新凯恩斯DSGE模型，参数校准和数值分析表明该模型能够更好地刻画中国宏观经济的典型事实。在此基础上我们分别在规则行事与相机抉择两种情形下对比分析了我国面对灾难冲击时的最优财政货币政策选择问题，研究发现：（1）应对灾难冲击时，相对于相机抉择，规则行事造成的经济福利损失较低；（2）政府生产性支出可以降低灾难冲击对消费和产出等宏观经济变量的影响，但同时会弱化债务对灾难冲击的吸收作用；（3）引入通货膨胀惩罚（或厌恶）后政府可以更多地倚重于债务发行来吸收外部不利冲击，从而缓解相机抉择下的时间不一致性问题，减少经济福利损失。 |
| Abstract | With the introduction of government productive expenditure, we propose a New Keynesian DSGE model with the rare disaster shock, and the calibration results show that our model can fit the stylized facts of the Chinese economy better. We calibrate our model to contrast optimal policies under commitment and discretion regime in the Chinese economy, and find that : (1) compared to the discretion regime, the commitment regime will result in less welfare loss; (2) government productive spending will reduce the consumption growth and tax income volatility, but will also reduce the debt absorption effect; (3) the introduction of inflation aversion will induce government to rely more on the debt to absorb the shock, and reduce the welfare loss in the discretion regime. We also calibrate our model with the US economy data and find the similar conclusion. |
| 文章编号 | WP1148 |
| 登载时间 | 2017-01-10 |
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