全球空间关联视角下的中国经济增长——基于一种新型增长核算框架的分析
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| Title | China's Economic Growth from the Perspective of Global Spatial Connection
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| 作者 | 刘瑞翔 颜银根 范金 |
| Author | Liuruixiang, Yanyingen and Fanjin |
| 作者单位 | 南京审计大学 |
| Organization | Nanjing Audit University |
| 作者Email | ruixiangliu_nj@163.com； |
| 中文关键词 | 空间关联 经济增长动力 全球投入产出模型 中等收入阶段 |
| Key Words | Spatial Connection; Economic Growth Source; Global Input-output Model; Middle Income Stage |
| 内容提要 | 本文利用1995-2011年世界投入产出表，基于一种新型的增长核算框架，从全球空间关联角度对中国经济增长源泉进行分解，为中等收入阶段中国经济可持续增长提供新思路。本文结论包括：(1)分析期间中国经济在感应度增加的同时，影响力并没有得到有效提升。考虑到增加值分配因素之后，中国经济在自身国际分工率提升的同时，参与国际间新增价值分配的能力有了大幅度提升；(2) 中国经济在对亚洲地区依赖程度下降同时，对北美区域经济的依赖度有所上升。具体到国家层面而言，中国经济对美国和日本等国依赖程度较高，但在分析期间，对前者依存度仍在增加，而对后者依存度却有所下降；(3)过去十多年来，中国经济高速增长是外部因素和内部因素共同作用的结果，全球投入产出结构变化对中国经济带来的正面冲击大多是短期和暂时的，随着时间推移将有所减弱，以投资为主的国内最终需求结构在中等收入阶段将不可持续。最后本文从创新、需求结构以及增长质量三个角度提出了针对性的政策建议。 |
| Abstract | This paper decomposed the China’s economic growth source with the World Input-output Table during 1995-2011 under a new growth accounting framework and provides a new idea for China's sustainable economic growth in the middle-income stage. The conclusions in this paper include: (1) While the induction degree of China's economy has been increased during the analysis period, its influence power has not get effectively improved t at the same time. Considering the factors of income distribution, both the international division of labor rate and income distribution ability has been increased at the same time; (2) China's economic dependence on Asia declined during the analysis period, while its dependence on the North American regional increased. Specific to the national level, China's economy depended on the United States and Japan heavily. During the analysis period, the former dependency still increasing and the latter dependency ratio has declined. (3) Over the past 10 years, China's rapid economic growth is the result of interaction of internal and external factors. The change of global input-output structure brought the positive impact on China's economy which is temporary and will be weakened with the passage of the time. At the same time, the domestic final demand structure which depend on investment will not be sustainable in the middle-income stage. Finally, this paper puts forward the policy recommendations from three aspects: innovation, demand structure and quality of growth. |
| 文章编号 | WP1154 |
| 登载时间 | 2017-02-10 |
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