谁更愿意去库存：国有还是非国有房地产企业？
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| Title | Who is willing to destock, state-owned or non-state-owned real estate business?
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| 作者 | 刘斌 黄坤 王雷 |
| Author | Liu Bin, Huang Kun and Wang Lei |
| 作者单位 | 重庆大学经济与工商管理学院 |
| Organization | School of Economics and Business Administration, Chongqing University |
| 作者Email | drliubin@263.net；huang15136618966@163.com；wanglei6943@163.com |
| 中文关键词 | 房地产企业 产权性质 过度生产 去库存 |
| Key Words | Real Estate Business; Ownership; Overproduction; Destock |
| 内容提要 | 房地产市场的“非理性繁荣”引发了行业性的过度投资，从而积压了大量房地产库存。本文依托我国经济转型时期的特殊制度背景，以政府的“支持之手”和“掠夺之手”为切入点，从房地产企业的存量投资这一视角出发，实证研究了产权性质对房地产企业过度生产以及去库存行为的影响。实证结果表明：相较于非国有房地产企业，国有房地产企业发生过度生产的概率更高，累计过度生产年限更长且过度生产程度更大；同时，在去库存的过程中，国有房地产企业更不愿意去库存，累计去库存年限更短且去库存的程度更小。进一步研究还表明，在GDP增长压力大的地区，政府对于国有房地产企业的干预更多，导致其过度生产概率更高且去库存意愿下降；而金字塔结构层级的增加削弱了政府对国有房地产企业的干预，使得国有房地产企业过度生产的概率下降且去库存的意愿提高。本文通过探讨政府干预对国有房地产企业过度生产以及去库存行为的影响机理，为在供给侧结构性改革背景下有序推进“去库存”工作提供了政策建议。 |
| Abstract | The irrational exuberance of the real estate market led to industrial over-investment and overstock. Based on unique institutional background of China’s transition economy, this paper investigates whether ownership will impact over-production and destocking behavior of the real estate business from the perspective of stock investment. We find that state-owned real estate companies are more likely to overproduction and less likely to destock. Further studies show that this phenomenon is more pronounced where the GDP growth is relatively poor. However, when state-owned real estate companies have more pyramid layers, the probability of overproduction behavior is decreasing and the willingness of destocking is increasing. Our findings provide policy suggestions on destocking under China’s ongoing supply-side reform. |
| 文章编号 | WP1162 |
| 登载时间 | 2017-02-28 |
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