预期冲击、房价波动与经济波动 阅读全文
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Title | Expectation Shock, House Price Movements and Economy Fluctuation
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作者 | 王频 候成琪 |
Author | Wang Pin and Hou Chengqi |
作者单位 | 中南财经政法大学金融学院;武汉大学经济与管理学院 |
Organization | Zhongnan University of Economics and Law;Wuhan University |
作者Email | wangpin@znufe.edu.cn;cqhou@whu.edu.cn |
中文关键词 | 预期冲击 住房价格 住房交易成本 住房使用者成本 经济波动 |
Key Words | expectation shock; house price; house transaction cost; house user cost; economy fluctuation |
内容提要 | 本文通过在一个包含耐心家庭和缺乏耐心家庭两类家庭、包含消费品部门和房地产部门两个部门的DSGE模型中引入住房交易成本和住房价格的预期冲击,研究预期对住房价格和宏观经济的影响。本文的研究发现:(1)因为当期住房价格的上涨会提高住房使用者成本而未来住房价格的预期上涨会降低住房使用者成本,所以未来住房价格会大幅上涨的预期会导致越涨越买的现象;(2)如果政府因为房价上涨过快而实施增加住房交易成本等房地产业的紧缩政策,但是公众预期未来政府会因为宏观经济下行转而采取房地产业的扩张政策,则这种预期会使当前的紧缩政策失效;(3)公众的正确预期能够改善房地产业调控政策的经济效果,但是错误预期会引起政策的反向修正从而增加经济的波动。 |
Abstract | This article introduces expectation shocks on house transaction cost and house price in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model where households consist of a patient one and an impatient one and production sectors consist of a consumer goods sector and a real estate sector, and studies the influence of expectation on house price and macroeconomy. We find that, (1) rise of current house price increases house user cost, but expected rise of future house price decreases it, so expected sharply rise of future house price will cause the phenomenon of “more rise, more buy”; (2) if the government takes contractionary policy of real estate industry such as increasing house transaction cost because of rapid rise of house price, but the public expect expansionary policy of real estate industry will be implemented because of bust of macroeconomy, then this expectation will make current contractionary policy ineffective; (3) correct expectation of the public can improve the effect of industrial policy in real estate sector, but incorrect expectation will cause reverse correction of the policy and increase fluctuation of macroeconomy. |
文章编号 | WP1164 |
登载时间 | 2017-03-07 |
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